Так, быстренько уже пошло, быстренько...
За неделю столько же
сколько за три месяца зимой и весной (а летом условия
для рас
пространения сильно хуже - жара убивает H5N1)
23 new HPAI cases in 4 days - Vietnam
« on: Today at 12:41:04am » Reply with quote
http://thanhniennews.com/healthy/?catid=8&newsid=7346 Thanhnien News
Vietnam has confirmed two more patients infected with
the bird flu virus and five o
ther suspected cases, said
the National Institute
for Clinical Research of Tropical Medicine in Hanoi June 19.
The conditions of
the infected patients are not critical, said doctors at
the institute, but how
they caught
the virus remains unclear as some patients claimed
they had not come into contact with dead fowl.
Since last week, 23 suspected cases of
bird flu nationwide have been reported.
Experts also expressed
their concern that
the H5N1 virus could be capable of infecting humans via
the water or air.
The H5N1 virus strain has killed 38 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and four Cambodians since it ravaged large parts of Asia in late 2003.
Reported by Nam Son Translated by Ngoc Hanh.
Добавлено в [mergetime]1119263363[/mergetime] 28
Bird Flu Cases in Nor
thern and Central Vietnam
R
ecombinomics Commentary
June 20, 2005
>>
The two patients and three suspected cases were admitted to
the Institute of Tropical Diseases in Hanoi capital city from June 18-19. Currently,
the institute is treating 28 people with
bird flu symptoms, of whom 13 have been tested positive to H5N1.<<
The five new admissions of H5N1
bird flu patients raises
the number of cases admitted this month to an alarming and unprecedented number of 28 con
formed or suspect cases at
the Institute of Tropical Diseases.
The timeline on
the admissions also suggests that additional cases will be admitted.
There were two admissions in
the first week of
the month, 13 in
the s
econd week, and 13 in
the third week Prior to
the latest 5 admissions,
the earlier admissions were from at least 6 provinces in nor
thern and central Vietnam.
In addition
there is a new confirmed outbreak of H5N1 on a chicken farm in An Khanh commune in Ben Tre province in sou
thern Vietnam.
There have been no reported H5N1 human cases in
the south, but
the cases in
the north appear to be milder and represent
for efficient human to human transmission based on
the large number of newly admitted patients and
the lack of contact with dead
birds.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06200501...Vietnam_28.html Добавлено в [mergetime]1119263496[/mergetime] A proposed pandemic FAQ http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=17147Draft one
OK, guys, ive spent all day working on this, its only a raw "draft one". it needs your input and editing. We need links added, and lots more ideas, Please correct any errors. We can add
the threads list to this, its got lots more info than this basic (but s
till long!) faq can deliver:
Personal Pandemic Planning
What is Influenza?
The Garden Variety Flu
Influenza (
the flu ) is a common viral illness. It circulates in
the human
population in an annual, cyclic fashion. In any given year approximately 10-20% of
the population b
ecomes ill with influenza. Influenza is responsible
for an average of 200,000 hospitalizations and 36,000 deaths in
the United States each year. Because it is caused by a virus, flu cannot successfully be treated with antibiotics. Special drugs called antivirals are used to r
educe
the symptoms an duration of
the illness, or to help prevent symptoms-prophylaxis. Flu can also be prevented (or severity of
the illness r
educed) by vaccination.
Influenza mutates, or changes its genes and external structure very rapidly compared to most viruses. This rapid change of its protein coat allows
the virus to fool
the immune system into not r
ecognizing it as an invader, even though youve had a different strain of flu be
fore, or been vaccinated in
the past. To be effective
the vaccine that is used to prevent flu must change to reflect
the unique strains predominating each year.
When a person is infected with
the flu,
the virus begins to rapidly reproduce within
the infected persons (host) tissues. Most influenza strains reproduce rapidly in lung and intestinal tissue. When a host coughs, sneezes or brea
thes out moist air, large amounts of
the virus is released (shed) back out into
the environment. It can also be shed in stool and o
ther body fluids.
The virus can live in
the environment on hard surfaces
for days. People touching those surfaces can be infected when
they transfer
the virus from
their hands to
the mucous membranes of
their mouth, nose or eyes. Researchers believe
the most common way to be infected with
the flu is by breathing in
the flu virus. Virus floats in
the air in droplets created by coughs and sneezes. Invisible to
the human eye, those tiny droplets can remain suspended in
the air
for many hours after
they are produced. Contact with o
ther infected body secretions, such as stool containing live virus, can also cause an infection.
About a day after infection (up to four days), symptoms begin. In most common flu types, a headache and fever are often
the first signs.
The oral temperature usually runs from 101 degrees to 103 degrees Fahrenheit. Respiratory symptoms
then start-cough, congestion, sneezing and some shortness of breath are common to most infections of flu. Cold symptoms are often mistaken
for the flu, but cold bugs do not usually cause
the high fever and profound weakness common to influenza
Some strains also cause gastrointestinal symptoms, such as nausea, diarrhea and vomiting. Additional flu symptoms include severe aching of muscles and joints, headache, loss of appetite and profound lethargy and tiredness.
These symptoms continue
for about three or four days.
The victim experiences overwhelming tiredness and generalized discom
fort
for about 3 or 4 more days. Although acute symptoms usually last
about a week, it may take several more weeks or even months until
the victim regains usual levels of stamina.
There are many possible complications of influenza infection. People most at risk of complications are
the elderly. Our immune systems function less effectively as we age, so flu mortality is high in persons over age 65. Risk is also high in
the very young-
their immune system of infants and young children isnt developed enough to effectively fight off
the flu virus. Both groups are also prone to life-threatening dehydration from
the high fever, vomiting and diarrhea. O
ther special risk groups include those with chronic illnesses, such as diabetes, lung problems, those taking steroids
for autoimmune diseases, and persons with HIV. If you have a chronic illness you should check with your physician to
see if you may be at higher risk of complications from
the flu.
The immune system b
ecomes exhausted when fighting off an infection like flu- leaving you more susceptible to o
ther infections. A common flu complication is called s
econdary pneumonia. A different pathogen takes advantage of
the weakened immune system and causes pneumonia-
the usual culprit is a bacteria. Bacterial pneumonias are usually treated with antibiotics. S
econdary pneumonias are suspected when a person initially r
ecovers
form
the flu symptoms, but
then days or weeks later b
ecomes ill again with a fever and cough. This is considered
the most common cause of mortality attributed to
the usual human flu infection.
For more influenza facts and statistics,
see:
http://www.lungusa.org/site/pp.asp?c=dvLUK...UK9O0E&b=316591Pandemic Influenza
We most commonly think of flu as a human disease. But, different strains of influenza circulate in animal
populations as well.
Birds, especially wild waterfowl, are reservoir of flu strains.
Usually,
the human and avian strains are separate- a person does not normally contract
the influenza strain and b
ecome ill when exposed to an avian influenza virus. That is because
the strains that
birds carry lack
the protein configuration on
the outside of
the virus that act as a key to unlock human cells and allows
the virus to enter, m
ultiply and cause illness. That is why some influenza strains are referred to as Avian Flu -
they are specific
for the cells of
birds, and dont adapt to human cells.
Occasionally, an avian flu strain mutates and gains
the ability to infect humans. This may cause spo
radic cases of human illness, but
the virus has trouble efficiently passing from human to human. If
the virus mutates to develop human infectivity or meets up with ano
ther flu virus in host with dual infections, and shares
the genes with it that allow efficient human to human transmission (H2H), a new strain may begin to spread among people. A small outbreak of influenza is called a cluster. If
the clusters b
ecome more common and frequent,
then
the chances of an influenza
epidemic or pandemic increase. An
epidemic is r
ecognized when infection spread in large geographic region like country or continent.
A pandemic is characterized by
the rapid and efficient transmission of
the virus within
the human
population, worldwide. Because it is an entirely new strain,
there is no immunity to new virus in
the human
population. More of
the people who are exposed to
the virus develop influenza illness. During a pandemic it is estimated that
about ¼ to1/3 of
the population will b
ecome ill from
the pandemic strain. That is called
the attack rate.
Besides a high attack rate, a pandemic has historically had ano
ther significant characteristic-
the severity of human illness
the pandemic strain causes. Three significant influenza pandemics occurred during
the 20th century. All three of those pandemic flu strains are believed to have originated in
birds, and b
ecome adapted to humans.
The most serious and deadly pandemic we have any data on occurred during WW1-
the Spanish Flu.
The Spanish flu began causing serious illness in 1918. It spread throughout
the world in three waves- periods of time when
the virus was very active. Estimates vary, but it believed that up to 1/3 of
the world
population suffered influenza during one of
the three pandemic waves, and between
2.5 and 5% of those who became ill died of
the flu or its complications (mortality rate).
The human death toll is believed to have been anywhere from 20 to 100 million people.
Pandemic strains may also cause different symptoms and affect different body systems
then
the usual annual flu virus. Some pandemic strains cause unusually high rates of neurological illness,
result in primary viral influenza pneumonia, or uncontrolled bleeding (hemorrhagic strains). Ano
ther possible cause of high mortality (death rates) of pandemic flu occurs when
the strain triggers a hyperactive response of
the immune system, flooding
the lungs with white blood cells and fluids, essentially drowning
the victim in
their own secretions (cytokine storm).
For more in
formation on
the Spanish Flu Pandemic
see:
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databan...ies/dm18fl.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_FluThe Current Risks of a New Influenza Pandemic
By June of 2005, international medical experts have realized that a novel, rapidly spreading and endemic (entrenched in
the population) type of Avian Flu (H5N1) may
result in a human influenza pandemic sometime in
the near future. Without accurate scientific r
ecords from previous severe pandemics, it is impossible to be certain that
the behavior of
the virus indicates that a human pandemic is inevitable. Expert concern has
recently reached new highs due to new outbreaks in Vietnam and China and
the changing behavior and structure of
the virus appears to be adapting to efficient human transmission.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=16991The H5N1 flu has caused
the death by infection or culling of millions of domestic fowl in Sou
theast Asia and China. It appears to spread by wild migratory
birds and waterfowl, and has
recently developed
the ability to exist in some
birds (ducks) without causing illness. Approximately 100 cases of human illness have
resulted, most
for contact with infected
birds. Some human clusters have been identified in which limited human to human transmission has apparently occurred. Several different subtypes of
the virus have been identified, and
the mortality rate of human H5N1 flu infections has been close to 50% of
the total known infected.
It is believed that as
the virus continues to adapt and mutate, that
the ability to cause illness
resulting in death of
the victim will decrease. Experts apparently consider
the mortality rate of a worst case pandemic of H5N1 to be similar to
the Spanish Flu.
In 1918,
the medical community did not know
the virus caused
the disease.
They had no influenza vaccines to lower
the attack rate, antibiotics to treat s
econdary infections, personal protective equipment like N95 masks and medical gloves as an effective barrier to prevent infection.
There was no sophisticated medical equipment like ventilators to support patients who experienced respiratory failure. With
modern medical care we can assume that many people who died in 1918 from
the flu or its complications would survive a similar illness today.
But
the risks of a pandemic today are not as insignificant as it may
seem, when you consider
the many benefits we have in 2005 compared to 1918.
The sheer, overwhelming numbers of ill people in a pandemic may cancel out many of those benefits. If 10% of
the population is ill at any one time,
the entire medical system will b
ecome seriously overloaded. In a normal flu season with
the average type of flu bug, hospital bed availability is already stressed.
In a pandemic,
there may be nowhere near enough beds or medical staff available to treat
the number of patients who may need
their help. Even with personal protective equipment (PPE) that is currently available, it is assumed that
healthcare workers will experience a high rate of infection. Increased staff absenteeism combined with increased patient census means less beds available
for sick people.
Availability of medical equipment and medicines is also a concern. Mask, gloves, gowns, respiratory equipment, disposable patient care items, and o
ther items like this are manufactured with little extra available
for immediate need. During
the recent SARS
epidemic, much of this equipment became so backordered that hospitals were unable to obtain what
they needed fast enough, even with manufacturers going to 24 hour production and rush shipments.
The SARS
epidemic affected a very small area compared to a worldwide flu pandemic.
The needed volume of equipment and supplies would be many times higher
then
the needs that we experienced during SARS.
If
the pandemic strain causes severe illness (referred to as a virulent strain); hospitals, clinics and medical offices will b
ecome quickly overwhelmed. Ventilators and o
ther sophisticated medical support devices will be in short supply- and not everyone who will need one will find one available.
The medical system does not have
the surge capacity in ei
ther equipment, supplies, physical beds or medications to meet
the anticipated demand of a 1918 style pandemic.
The mortality rate will increase if our ability to deliver sophisticated care is diminished.
An effective pandemic influenza vaccine is considered
the best response to a pandemic situation. It would protect
healthcare workers and r
educe
the absenteeism due to illness. If large numbers of
the public are vaccinated,
the number of people with serious illness will decrease, easing some of
the strain on
the system.
But in order to create an influenza vaccine, manufacturers need to have
the strain thats circulating to produce it. We may not have samples of a strain close enough to
the pandemic strain to create an effective vaccine until after
the pandemic begins. Using current vaccine technology, it takes approximately six months to produce a vaccine
for a new influenza strain.
In a pandemic, we would need many times
the number of influenza vaccine doses
then we normally produce each year. It is anticipated that using current manufacturing techniques that
the production of a pandemic vaccine in sufficient quantity to immunize
the general public may not be possible
for up to one year after
the pandemic begins. Initial production runs will probably be used to immunize
healthcare workers and essential service personnel, and
then
the high risk groups.
Antiviral medications offer some hope to decrease
the severity of illness in
the affected.
They may also be used prophylacticly, to help r
educe
the chance of infection. But H5N1 is resistant to
the commonly used flu antivirals, except
for oseltmivar (Tamiflu). But
the availability of Tamiflu is limited due to
along production time and
the expense of
the medication.
There will not be enough Tamiflu available if a pandemic occurs in
the next year or two to protect even essential service personnel.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=17044The Possible S
econdary, Social Effects of a Pandemic
Healthcare may not be
the only system in our society strained to
the breaking point by a pandemic.
The Spanish flu pandemic came in three distinct waves, of approximately 12 weeks each. Anywhere from 5- 15% of
the population was ill during each wave. Quarantines were declared to r
educe ga
therings that allowed
the illness to spread. Schools, churches and non essential businesses closed
for weeks or months- sometimes permanently. Hundreds of thousands of workers were temporarily unemployed as
the waves spread
across the continents.
Early in 2005, President Bush signed an order that allowed
the use of quarantines in
the event of an influenza pandemic. Quarantines are considered an essential tool to decrease
the spread of
the disease. Many state and local pandemic planners may declare protective quarantines if a pandemic occurs. That will have significant adverse financial implications
for many wage earners. Child care resources and schools may be among he first to close,
forcing many parents to remain home to care
for minor children even if
their employers remain open. Alternative group childcare arrangements may not be used when
the parents realize
the increased risk of infection that
these arrangements create.
http://my.webmd.com/content/Article/104/107276.htmPublic transportation may be closed due to
the ability of
the virus to spread in
the close confines of planes, trains and busses.
Workers who depend on public transportation may not all find alternative means to get
their workplaces.
Essential services must remain available even in a severe pandemic.
Essential service workers are needed to continue electrical generation and supply, fuel oil and gas deliveries, and workers that manufacture and deliver
the supply of food, medicines and o
ther critical items.
Essential service personnel will also include fire, police, emergency service workers and
the active military.
Influenza, unlike some o
ther infectious illnesses, can be spread by an infected person be
fore
they know
they experience symptoms and realize
they are sick. Many essential service personnel will, like
healthcare workers; be at higher risk of infection due to frequent contact with o
thers. In
the absence of an effective vaccine, and with protective equipment is short supply it is likely that illness rates in
these groups may be higher
then
the general
population.
It is possible that some essential service disruption may occur. Most grocery stores have only enough food in
them
for about three days,
their inventory is replenished approximately twice a week. Disruption anywhere in
the manufacturing, supply or distribution of foods may
result in shortages. Quarantines may limit
the publics access to stores even if shortages are not severe.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe..._47/?hub=HealthMost pandemic waves occur during late all and winter months. Continuing supply and distribution of heating oil and natural gas will be essential to prevent illness and death due to severe wea
ther conditions. Electrical service interruptions due to winter storms may last longer if a pandemic r
educes
the number of repair personnel.
The ability of municipalities to deal with storms, snow covered roads and o
ther problems will be significantly r
educed if
the availability of workers, equipment and supplies are affected. Police, fire and emergency personnel may not be able to respond if road conditions can not be maintained.
In addition to
the unknown human toll of death, illness and permanent disability, it is diffic
ult to anticipate
the economic toll of a severe pandemic. If millions of workers are suddenly out of work
for weeks or months at a time, large numbers of business failures
seem likely. Loss of income translates to mass defa
ult on debt. Mortgage payments, utility bills, car loans and o
ther loans may not be paid
for many months. A severe recession
seems likely to some observers, and even more serious
economic effects are possible.
The possible responses of
the stock markets world wide are unknown.
The loss of
the retirement savings of millions of baby boomers so close to retirement age
seems possible. Government action may be needed to prevent total
economic meltdown. R
ecovery from
the economic effects of a pandemic may take decades.
What You Can Do To Prepare
Stay in
formed!
Watch
the news to determine if a pandemic is
about to occur. In addition to mainstream media, several internet resources can help you keep up with
the latest
developments. You may wish to check
these resources on a regular
for up to
the minute in
formation.
There are currently several internet boards and blogs following
the developing avian flu issue:
The Agonist Disease Outbreak Board- not specifically dedicated to flu, its members follow all
emerging or significant disease outbreaks.
http://discuss.agonist.org/yabbse/index.php?board=6Effect Measure-a public
health blog, a large portion of its content involves commentary and in
formation on Avian Flu.
http://www.effectmeasure.blogspot.com/Avian Flu- a
filter site with lists of news articles dealing with flu updated daily.
http://www.sars.com.sg/birdflu/bfindex.phpThe Flu Clinic- a board dedicated specifically to following and preparing
for the coming pandemic.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40Two newer boards specifically dedicated to
the current flu situation:
Epidmica
http://www.epidemi.ca/Pandemic:H5N1
http://www.pandemich5n1.com/news.php Assess Your Risk
Consider your personal situation in case of a flu pandemic. Talk to your doctor to determine if you are at risk of complications. Ask
for a pneumonia vaccine shot to help protect against one of
the most common causes of s
econdary pneumonia.
Consider storing extra supplies of medical equipment and medications you take on regular basis. Purchase and store over
the counter medications to be used
for influenza if someone in your family gets sick.
You may wish to consider a backup
form of heat if you live in a cold climate. Kerosene heaters, wood stoves and fuel, and o
ther options may be in short supply if
the public decides to purchase
them when a pandemic starts. Obtaining
them be
fore
the pandemic encourages increased production and availability. Even if a pandemic does not occur,
they are good backup
for common storm and o
ther crisis related interruptions. With careful shopping now, you may be able to obtain good used or inexpensive
models that wont be found when a crisis occurs.
Pandemic waves may last several months, and it is possible, from studying past pandemics, that several waves will occur. Begin purchasing extra storable food items each time you go shopping. Consider just how much food you will need
for your family
for the duration of any food supply disruptions that may occur.
The goal of many people planning
for the pandemic is storing 4 to 6 months worth of food
for their family.
Consider your financial situation. You may wish to discuss your personal situation with your family and/ or your financial counselor.
Create a Plan
After assessing our risk, determine what you can do to mitigate it. If you have questions you may wish to join one of
the boards following
the flu situation
for advice and support.
Estimate your food needs with a food storage calculator:
http://lds.about.com/library/weekly...s/aa102201b.htmLearn what to store and how to do so effectively:
http://waltonfeed.com/grain/faqs/Learn
the basic care of person with
the flu. Know what OTC medicines to use, and when you should call your doctor if things b
ecome serious. Have a working
thermometer
for each family member.
Make action lists:
1. To do now
2. If a pandemic is imminent, I will:
3. If a pandemic is declared, I will:
Take Action!
Start with your Do Now list
Begin shopping
for the items and supplies you have determined you should have available.
Talk to your employer. If you are an essential service worker, you may need to plan
for the care and
safety of your family members if you are unable to leave work or b
ecome quarantined at work.
Contact your local officials, and find out what
they know
about the possibility of a pandemic, and what
the plans are. Share in
formation with
them if
they arent preparing.
Help spread
the word.
The more people are prepared,
the less of a catastrophe a flu pandemic will cause.
Be prepared, not scared.
__________________
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forum
for fair use and
educational purposes only
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