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Military contract for Tamiflu

Defense Logistics Agency Spends $58m on Tamiflu

Text of DoD contract announcement -


Roche Laboratories Inc., Nutley, N.J., is being awarded a maximum $58,000,000 firm fixed price contract for Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps for Oseltamivir Phosphate Capsules. This is a requirements contract with a base year and one option period. Performance completion date is Feb. 28, 2006. Contract funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. There were two proposals solicited and one responded. The contracting activity is the Defense Supply Center Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pa. (SP0200-05-D-0009).


Добавлено в [mergetime]1121493212[/mergetime]
Кстати, о подЩетах:

Posts: 62
Remember 1918

Re:What if the flu does kill 50-100 million?

« Reply #76 on: Yesterday at 10:04:32am » Reply with quote

I have the feeling that when h2h is achived, we are going to see WAY more deaths than what has been projected. Most mortaliy tables are based on 20-30% infection rates world wide with a paltry 3-10% death rate.

Really now, I don't know what the infection percentage would be, but lets say 40% of the population (world wide) = 6.5 billion x .40 = 2.6 BILLION infected only.

Now comes the hard part. H5N1 has historically registered 50-80% death rate!

Do the math...2.6 Billion x avg death rate of 65% = 1.69 BILLION.

Am I that far away from reality?

Evolving Catastrophic H5N1 Bird Flu Pandemic in 2005

Recombinomics Commentary
July 17, 2005

The latest boxun report describes 10 strains of H5N1 circulating in China. Eight of the ten have some evidence for human infections, but there is no direct independent confirmation of the data. The data suggest that the 2005 pandemic is well underway and a wide range of catastrophic events will continue to make news. The report also suggests H5N1 in China is diverse and evolving, expanding a trend that will likely culminate in an event that may make the 1918 flu pandemic look tame.

Although the specifics of the report are not directly confirmed by third parties, the actions of China and the sequences of the H5N1 emerging from China, strongly support the descriptions of the strains in the boxun reports.

China's statements and actions support many of the details in the boxun story. When H5N1 exploded throughout Asia, and affected countries adjacent to China, the role of China as a breeding grounds for H5N1 was suspected. There had been many reports of H5N1 in Hong Kong and most of the poultry in Hong Kong's live markets comes from China. The H5N1 deaths of members of a Hong Kong family that had visited Fujian province in 2003 were a signal that China had H5N1 that could infect humans.

In 2004, when H5N1 infections were being reported throughout Asia, China also admitted to having H5N1 outbreaks in poultry. Only Vietnam and Thailand reported human cases, although most of the H5N1 detected in 2004 was the Z genotype, and more closely related to other Z genotype isolates than the 2003 isolates from the family that had visited Fujian province.

In 2005 the reported outbreaks had taken on a somewhat different distribution, but evidence began to mount suggesting that the differences were more related to reporting than actual changes. Human cases were limited to Vietnam and Cambodia, but recent sequence data on 2005 isolates demonstrates considerable genetic diversity, yet there were human cases in the north and south. In the north there were two versions of H5N1 that lacked an ARG residue in the HA cleavage site. This missing ARG had been seen earlier in isolates from China. In the Manila report some additional information was presented. The isolates in Vietnam were segregating into two groups. Northern Vietnam isolates resembled 2005 isolates from Thailand, while southern Vietnam isolates were more like isolates from Cambodia.

In 2005 Cambodia reported human H5N1 cases, but Thailand did not. The lack of human cases in Thailand was suspect because of numerous H5N1 outbreaks in birds in 2005, as well as human and wild cat outbreaks in 2004 in Thailand. Similarly, the lack of human cases in Indonesia became suspect when H5N1 antibodies were found in a poultry worker and H5N1 virus was found in swine. Now there appears to be human-to-human transmission of fatal H5N1 in Indonesia.

The 2005 sequences in Indonesia and Vietnam have similarities with 2004 Yunnan H5N1 sequences. Although China has not reported any H5N1 outbreaks in 2005 prior to the May outbreak in Qinghai, the Nature paper described 2005 H5N1 isolates from four provinces in China, Fujian, Hunan, Yunnan. And Guangdong. The 2005 isolates from Hunan, Yunnan, and Guangdong (Shantou), were similar to isolates from 2003 or 2004.

Thus, as the number of diverse H5N1 isolates from people in northern and southern Vietnam as well as Cambodia and Indonesia increase, the likelihood of human cases in China also increases, yet China has never reported a human H5N1 case.

The boxun report describes eight strains of H5N1 than have been linked to human cases. The strain of greatest virulence, RK7, appears to be the same as the eight isolates described in Nature and Science. It is quite lethal in experimental chickens and mice and boxun report indicating it is lethal in humans. Supporting the human lethality is the present of the PB2 polymorphism E627K, which is associated with H5N1 virulence in mammals.

E627K is found in all human isolates, but the only H5N1 isolates with the change are from mammals that had a poor outcome. Prior to Qinghai Lake, all bird H5N1 isolates had the E at position 627. Thus, finding E627K in all 8 Qinghai isolates is unprecedented, as is the large number of dead migratory birds with H5N1.

The boxun reports are indirectly supported by the Nature and Science reports, as well as sequences in human cases in countries adjacent to China. There is much more reason to doubt statements by China on the lack of human infections in China or statement by WHO on the lack of mild H5N1 cases in northern Vietnam.

The data in the boxun report is considerably more believable and the data suggests a catastrophic pandemic will expand, as birds migrate away from Qinghi Lake and summer nesting sites and return to Europe, India, and southeast Asia to spread a variety of new and old H5N1 strains capable of causing lethal infections in humans and a variety of other species.

Amantadine H5N1 Bird Flu Pandemic Containment

Recombinomics Commentary
July 18, 2005

The latest in vivo data on use of Tamiflu to treat H5N1 bird flu suggests pandemic use may be limited, especially at the recommended dose and duration. When mice were treated at the recommended dose for 5 days, 50% died. This outcome was not unexpected base on prior in vitro data, but discouraging with regard to pandemic containment because the mice had treatment started before infection. Most patients would not be treated until after symptoms developed, which is usually 2-4 after infection. The mice did fare somewhat better if treated for 8 days, but 20% still died and more may have had H5N1 brain infections since the strain used is neurotropic, as are many of the more lethal strains of H5N1.

The most recent confirmed human H5N1 fatalities have been in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. All public H5N1 sequences from Vietnam and Thailand since 2004 have two resistance markers in the MP gene, precluding the use of amantadine. Thus, pandemic preparedness plans have focused on Tamiflu, but most plans do not consider the likelihood that the recommend dose of Tamiflu will be ineffective if the pandemic is cause by H5N1 closely related to the isolates from Vietnam and Thailand.

However, recent boxun reports describe several H5N1 strains in China that can infect humans and most strains in China are amantadine sensitive, based on wild type polymorphisms at positions 26 and 31 of their M2 protein. The most virulent strain is RK7, which appears to correspond to the recent isolates from Qinghai Lake. These isolates have been described in recent Nature and Science reports and there was no mention of amantadine resistance markers. The Qingahi MP gene is most closely related to a chicken isolate from Shantou, which is amantadine sensitive. The other parental sequence, from a peregrine falcon in Hong Kong, is also amantadine sensitive.

Recent reports from Indonesia suggest that the fatalities of three family members may be due to H5N1, which may be transmissible human-to-human and lethal in all three family members. The family lives near H5N1 positive swine. Isolates from the swine are similar to Yunnan isolates, and all Yunnan H5N1 sequences at GenBank are amantadine sensitive.

As the number of reported H5N1 cases outside of Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia grow, the likelihood that an exported H5N1 will be amantadine sensitive also grows,

Amantadine is approved for prophylactic treatment of adult influenza infections. It is less expensive and more available than Tamiflu and may soon be stockpiled also.
Министерство здравоохранения Индонезии подтвердило, что смерть трех жителей Джакарты была вызвана птичьим гриппом. Результаты исследования лаборатории в Гонконге подтвердили, что 38-летний мужчина и две его дочери - в возрасте одного года и девяти лет - умерли от вируса H5N1.

Врачи опасаются, что они могут иметь дело с распространением вируса от человека к человеку, так как ни отец, ни его дочери не имели прямого контакта с домашней птицей. Представители Всемирной организации здравоохранения (ВОЗ), однако, считают, что делать подобные выводы рано; необходимы более глубокие исследования обстоятельств смерти семьи. 300 человек, которые имели в последнее время контакт с семьей, проживавшей на окраине Джакарты, находятся под пристальным вниманием врачей.

С января 2004 года от птичьего гриппа умерли более 50 человек в Камбодже, Вьетнаме и Таиланде. Кроме того, в азиатских странах, правительства которых пытаются остановить распространение болезни, были умерщвлены миллионы птиц.

В Индонезии случае птичьего гриппа среди домашней птицы возникали уже несколько раз в различных провинциях страны. Недавно стало известно, что вирусом птичьего гриппа заразился один из работников фермы. Однако члены семьи из Джакарты - первые жертвы болезни за все это время.

Ученые опасаются, что если вирус приобретет способность распространятся от человека к человеку, это может привести к глобальной эпидемии с миллионными жертвами.
Widespread Human H5N1 Bird Flu Infections in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 20, 2005

Patient's infection source is the chicken which edible includes the virus, the duck, the goose and its the egg product or the above living specimen contact. The patient after the infection internal heat birds and beasts flu, the virus meets the ambush, the usual incubation period is 15 days, crosses the patient after the incubation period to be able to appear the blood to be hot, the hands and feet department massively sheds skin, has the red spot phenomenon, the patient lungs can appear the high fever which continues, causes cough which the patient appears suppresses with difficulty, and has the discontinuity to have a poor appetite, dizziness, the body becomes emaciated and so on the symptom, the partial partners have the flu symptom, the partial crowds have the immunity to this type virus, this virus at present treats unusual complex, belongs to the stubborn disease, at present China's many places merely list as this disease the simple chronic pneumonia, the chronic bronchitis, virulent flu, Chinese medicine rebirth all kinds

The above machine translated boxun report suggests that large inflows of patients in China, including Guandong province, are due to H5N1 bird flu. Many of the infections originate in various forms of food (probably uncooked or undercooked) and have a long incubation period of about two weeks.

The infections are misdiagnosed, which is similar to reports of 1918 flu pandemic. This latest boxun report, in conjunction with earlier reports of 10 different H5N1 strains in China is cause for concern. Eight of the ten strains were found in humans and the range of symptoms was broad, including those with mild flu-like conditions. The most virulent human strain was RK7, which would appear to be the virulent Qinghai Lake strain recently described in Nature and Science. This strain could cause a catastrophic pandemic because of transport by migratory birds. The Qinghai outbreak was quickly followed by deaths of ducks and geese on farms in Xinjiang and China has not responded to a WHO request for an on site visit to the Xinjiang areas. There have also been reports of pneumonia clusters in Tacheng, site of on soutbreak and boxun reports have provided detail on fatal H5N1 human cases in Qinghai.

These data strongly suggest that the pandemic stage is at five or six, although WHO maintains that it is at three indicating all of the familial clusters, including the latest in Indonesia, are mere coincidences and not due to human-to-human transmission (stage four is defined by small dead end human-to-human transmission clusters).

WHO's position is not scientifically valid and encourages under-reporting, which appears to be rampant in China, where a raging stage six flu pandemic may be happening.


Добавлено в [mergetime]1121871613[/mergetime]
China Withholds Key H5N1 Bird Flu Data


Recombinomics Commentary
July 20, 2005

Authorities also haven't responded to a WHO request to be allowed to visit the Xinjiang region in China's northwest, where there have been reports of a bird flu outbreak along the border with Kazakhstan, said Roy Wadia, a spokesman for WHO's Beijing office.

Chinese authorities have yet to release samples gathered in the western province of Qinghai, where at least 6,000 migratory birds have died, Wadia said.

"It would be useful if information on the virus was shared with the international agencies concerning bird flu, or if it were deposited at gene banks as per the usual procedures in these cases," Wadia said.

China's Ministry of Agriculture didn't immediately respond Wednesday to requests for comment.

China's failure to respond to foreign appeals for cooperation has prompted fears that the outbreak might be bigger and more dangerous than reported.

The above comments add considerable weight to concerns that there is a raging human pandemic in China. China has been the epicenter of the unprecedented H5N1 outbreak in 2004. H5N1 was reported throughout China and most adjacent countries. The reported human cases were in Vietnam and Thailand. In 2005 the human cases were initially concentrated in Vietnam and Cambodia.

However, the demographics of the outbreak in Vietnam suggested a less lethal but more transmissible variant was affecting northern Vietnam. Although these cases had been laboratory confirmed, WHO refused to acknowledge the widespread human-to-human transmission. The first sequences of 2005 were recently made public, and these new sequences clearly show a China connection, with sequences found in Guangdong and Yunnan province. Today fatal human H5N1 was confirmed in Indonesia in suburban Jakarta, where H5N1 was also detected in asymptomatic swine. The swine sequences also pointed toward a Yunnan origin.

The sequences of the H5N1 provide valuable clues on the origin of infections. A large database was generated using 2004 isolates and additional 2005 isolates have been deposited at GenBank, although two weeks after publication, GenBank has still not released these sequences.

The description of the sequences however, has been published and they also show links to earlier sequences from Shantou and Hong Kong. The Nature paper also described 2005 H5N1 sequences from Yunnan, Hunan, and Fujian Province in addition to Shantou in Guangdong Provicince. The Qinghai sequences also have a polymorphism in PB2 (E627K), which had previously been limited to human flu isolates. The presence in H5N1 was limited to brain isolates from experimental mice, or severe, usually fatal, cases in humans, dating back to the 1997 outbreak.

The H5N1 in Qinghai is unusually severe in migratory birds, which is why it is critical to obtain additional sequence information on the birds before they disperse throughout Asia and Europe. These sequences can help identify the genetic changes, which are required to produce more specific probes for detecting H5N1 and designing more specific vaccines.

Boxun reports indicate the birds at Qinghai Lake are infected with several versions of H5N1, which leads to new reassortants and recombinants. The Qinghai isolates are already reassortants, with three genes related to Shantou isolates and five related to a Hong Kong isolate. The E627K indicates they are also recombinants and dual infections will generate new recombinants.

The withholding of the sequence data is an ominous sign. Boxun reports indicate China has an active avian influenza program and will certainly collect samples and sequences from Qinghai lake, in addition to the sequences from the Xinjiang outbreaks. Failure to share this information adds to speculation of a widespread cover-up of human cases. Boxun reports detailed human cases in Qinghai and the description of the 10 strains indicates 8 infect humans.

China has never reported a human H5N1 case although fatal human cases in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia all have genetic links to China.

It appears increasingly likely that an unreported flu pandemic is well underway in China.

UK to stockpile bird-flu vaccine

By Lucy Sherriff

Published Thursday 21st July 2005 01:02 GMT
Now is the time to train as a nurse, join the army or make yourself indispensable to the government in some other way. The government has confirmed that it is to stockpile two million shots of the vaccine against the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

It plans to use the drug to protect emergency and medical workers against a global outbreak of the virus, after Indonesian officials confirmed three human fatalities earlier this week, the BBC reports. The cases have prompted concern that the virus can now spread from human to human.

Always ready with a cheery statistic, the World Heath Organisation says that a pandemic of the virus is "inevitable" (т.е. утверждают, что неизбежна, пандемия-то ), and says that attempts to contain the virus in Asia have not been successful. A pandemic could cause as many as 50,000 deaths in the UK.

Health Secretary, Patricia Hewitt said in a statement: "I have decided it would be prudent to purchase a limited quantity of H5N1 vaccine which could be used to help protect those that need it most, such as NHS workers. This, alongside the purchase of 14.6 million doses of antivirals and the other public health measures we have in place, will help ensure that the UK continues to be at the forefront of international preparedness for a possible flu pandemic."

She added that the UK would also carry out clinical studies of how the vaccine works against the virus, and how effective it could be.

The government has invited manufacturers of the vaccine to tender for a contract to supply two million doses.
21 июля, 14:19

Птичий грипп достиг России
Под Новосибирском зарегистрирован птичий грипп, сообщается в МЧС России.

«Большое количество птиц погибло... и исследование показало присутствие вируса птичьего гриппа типа H5,"- заявил представитель МЧС Виктор Бельцов, передает «Газета.ru».

Как сообщил источник в МЧС, «в 11.00 мск поступило сообщение о огромном падеже птицы в селе Суздалка. В общей сложности погибли 200 гусей и 100 кур».

В настоящее время к работе приступили специалисты управления ветеринарии области, территориального управления федеральной службы Роспотребнадзора по Новосибирской области, а также департамента здравоохранения.


PS. Если кто внимательно читал предыдущие посты, то должен был заметить, что Генри Ниман утверждал, что реальное начало пандемии может начаться в августе, когда прилетевшие на лето на север Китая птицы начнут возвращаться обратно (в том числе и через юг Сибири - в Европу). Именно на севере Китая была зарегистрирована мощнейшая вспышка H5N1, с уже мутировавшими генами, облегчающими заражение млекопитающий, в т.ч. людей.
Итак, уже не только ак. Львов озвучивает предполагаемую цифру потерь среди населения примерно в 1 млрд. чел., а и британские медицинские официальные лица (ранее Остерхольм, один из американских высокопоставленных медиков, давал прогноз на 360 млн.)

Bird Flu More Worrisome Than Terrorism, Says UK Health Expert

21 July, 2005 22:05 GMT


'The human mortality with H5N1 bird flu could be 30 percent and an epidemic could infect 50 percent of the world's population. I am much more concerned about this than terrorist threats,' said a UK respiratory disease expert.
Two million doses of bird-flu vaccine are to be stockpiled in Britain, the government announced yesterday, as a leading expert said he was more concerned about the virus than terrorist attacks. The vaccines will be given to key workers to form "the first line of defense" in any outbreak.

Doctors have already warned a pandemic of bird flu is inevitable and could kill up to 50,000 people in Scotland.

In March, ministers announced plans to cope with such an outbreak, including setting aside GBP 14.6 million worth of anti-viral drugs to treat the flu. Now Indonesia has reported its first human death linked to bird flu -- known as the H5N1 virus -- taking the death toll in southeast Asia to 57.

Mortality Could Be 30 Percent

At the moment, bird flu appears to pose a limited threat to humans because it cannot be spread easily from person to person.

But the outbreak in Asia has led to concern among scientists.

Peter Openshaw, the head of the respiratory infections section at the national heart and lung institute, Imperial College, London, said: "It's difficult to know if a major outbreak is about to happen, but mutated H5N1 bird flu that spreads between people would be much harder to control than SARS or smallpox.

"The human mortality with H5N1 bird flu could be 30 percent and an epidemic could infect 50 percent of the world's population. I am much more concerned about this than terrorist threats."
a d v e r t i s e m e n t

Patricia Hewitt, the health secretary, announced yesterday that manufacturers are to be invited to tender for a contract to supply the H5N1 vaccine.

She said: "I have decided it would be prudent to purchase a limited quantity of H5N1 vaccine which could be used to help protect those that need it most, such as NHS workers. We will also be able to carry out further research so that we can find out how the vaccine can be used most effectively."

Vaccine May Not Be Effective

Because the vaccine plans are for a national emergency, rather than for regular health care, they cover the whole of the UK.

However, the health service in Scotland will have separate plans to allow for differences in policy, and health agencies across the UK will be involved in monitoring any outbreak.

Jim McMenamin, a consultant epidemiologist with Health Protection Scotland (HPS), said bird flu was a risk to Scotland and it was the responsibility of health workers across Britain to be prepared.

"They have been looking at this for some time on the available evidence that there continues to be a threat of avian influenza in southeast Asia. In response to that threat, this is a welcome development."

If a pandemic does occur, a vaccine could be used in a number of ways.

If the flu affects a particular sector of the population, such as young children or the elderly, it could be given to them. Or, if a certain part of the country is affected, it could be given to the surrounding population. Most commonly, it could be given to key workers, particularly those in hospitals, to ensure that public services are maintained.

However, given the virus constantly changes, the vaccine will not necessarily be effective against the threat.

HPS, along with the Health Protection Agency in England, will assist in any research to find out how the vaccine works and how effective it can be.
Итак, уже не только ак. Львов озвучивает предполагаемую цифру потерь среди населения примерно в 1 млрд. чел

Пошел на всякий случай гроб заказывать. Интересно а Марлевые маски или респираторы помогают?
Под Новосибирском зарегистрирован птичий грипп, сообщается в МЧС России.
- Тож хотел сообщить, но опоздал smile.gif
По ТВ профессор успокаивал, что у нас вЫроятность заразиться меньшая, бо у нас традиционно покупать мороженую (а хначит, заранее ощипанную и выпотрошенную) птицу, а не убитую прямо при тебе, как там..
Успокаивал, что заразившихся людей нету..
пока.. (прим.моё)
предполагаемую цифру потерь среди населения примерно в 1 млрд. чел.,
- Если учесть, что половина населения шарика (1,7 + 1,2 + 0,7млрд) сосредоточена в ЮВА (если по пунктам - китай, индия, индонезия, насколько помню), то весьма вероятно...
Не хочется заниматься конспирологией, но поскольку прецеденты уже были (напр, колорадский жук, внезапно с 1949 начавший приплывать в ящиках на побережье балтики, пр.) возникает мысля, настолько ли естественна причина возникновения данной мутации вируса.... Как тогда надо было опустить через сельхоз главного конкурента, так и теперь.. g.gif
Сам птичий грипп как таковой - явление вполне природное, и все же данный вариант (H5N1), похоже тоже. Зафиксирован он был в середине 90х, среди диких птиц, и только потом начал поражать домашнюю птицу, а последние годы начал затрагивать и млекопитающих (кстати, поразительно широко - обычные гриппы так обычно себя не ведут, а тут и человек, и кошачьи, и собаки и свиньи и овцы и т.п.). Некоторое воздействие, направляющее мутации, конечно могло быть - но далеко не уверен что было (это и трудно, и последствия катастрофические отнюдь не только для Китая).

Другое дело что на прошлой недели появились сообщения об нескольких вспышках Эболы в Китае в разных местах - тут да, очень подозрительно (из Африки она ранее не выходила, да и сама является скорее всего модифицированным вариантом Марбургского вируса, только с более сильно поражающей способностью).

Что же касается 1 млрд. - на самом деле, вполне может быть больше. В статье использованы данные по смертности, характерные для въетнамского варианта H5N1, в то время как у китайского не 30%, а под 70 (а какой именно начнет повсеместно распространятся - пока еще никто не скажет точно). Кроме того, это проценты смертности при интенсивном лечении, с учетом работающих больниц и госпиталей, где можно поддерживать жизнь вплоть до аппаратов искуственного дыхания (они нужны в тяжелых случаях этого гриппа). Но при массовой эпидемии больницы будут переполненны, да и сами врачи в основном выйдут из строя. Так что процент вполне может быть выше.

Добавлено в [mergetime]1121987467[/mergetime]
По ТВ профессор успокаивал, что у нас вЫроятность заразиться меньшая, бо у нас традиционно покупать мороженую (а хначит, заранее ощипанную и выпотрошенную) птицу

В мороженом мясе H5N1 прекрасно сохраняется
Некоторое воздействие, направляющее мутации, конечно могло быть - но далеко не уверен что было (это и трудно, и последствия катастрофические отнюдь не только для Китая
- Именно про направление мутации и говорю. Бо создание чего-то абсолютно нового не только дорого и составляет гостайну и "сюрприз" на случай войны, но также сужает круг подозрений на причину.
В подозрениях руководствуюсь материальной стороной дела. Как аналог вспомнилась паника 2003-2004 года насчет атипичной пневмонии, вспыхнувшей там же. Я как раз в то время следил за потоками паксов и грузов, заметил, что в туристическом смысле доля прибыли ушла от ЮВА во флориду и калифорнию (много меньшая часть - средиземноморье), в грузовом - оч. сильно ударила также, выгода альтернативным направлениям (в частности, даже транссибу перепало чуток на направлении АТР-Европа).
Теперь - через менее 2 лет - опять эпидемия чего-то известного но атипичного, в том же регионе..

Кста, в рамках биологической войны направления разработок уничтожения домашнего скота и пищевых культур были весьма перспективны.. Возможно, одна из тех заготовок...

Добавлено в [mergetime]1121994035[/mergetime]
В мороженом мясе H5N1 прекрасно сохраняется
- Дык это-то понятно smile.gif Но не всем. Вот и можно поуспокаивать.
Птичий грипп обнаружен еще в одном районе Новосибирской области


В Купинском районе погибли 240 птиц. Ранее сообщалось о том, что в селе Суздалка Доволенского района погибли 300 птиц. Случаев заболевания среди населения не выявлено.

Как сообщил заведующий лабораторией по изучению зоонозных инфекций центра вирусологии и биотехнологии "Вектор" Александр Шестопалов, в настоящее время точно установлено, что изолят данного вируса гриппа определяется как "H5", то есть как азиатский вирус. "Более точно серотип вируса будет установлен сегодня в течение дня", - сказал ученый, добавив, что случаи падежа зафиксированы как среди домашней, так и среди дикой птицы, передает Русское радио в Новосибирске. В радиусе 30 км от села Суздалка запрещен вывоз и продажа куриного мяса.

С соблюдением всех санитарных норм проводится уничтожение заболевших домашних птиц, дезинфекция курятников. Проведено заседание областной комиссии по чрезвычайным ситуациям, на котором определен план мероприятий по ликвидации данной чрезвычайной ситуации. Решение будет введено в действие, после результатов окончательного исследования

Raging Stage 6 Bird Flu Pandemic in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 22, 2005

"Hey, are we going to war? Something's not right. I can see many armoured vehicles and soldiers with guns on the road. I can ever hear planes in the air. Rumor has it that they're from Yushu (i believe that this's a location, but i'm not sure which) Can someone please clarify what's happening?"

"They're over here too. I can see hundreds of troops, many of whom are in full battle order. I'm from Yushu"

"I'm from Chengdu. Are you from the region where the bird flu was found?"

"I'm seeing the same thing here too, in LaSuTung (translation, i think it's a mongolian city). I've never seen so many planes in my entire life."

"It must be related to the bird flu."

"I thought "it" (the bird flu) was from the Qinghai region? It's here now? That's really fast."

"We'd better keep a low profile. My parents are asking me not to venture out. I can see troops in full battle order grabbing people. But I'm not sure why so."

"You're right, I can see troops and planes too."

"It must be our comrades getting ready to attack Japan."

"It's such a mess here. We can't even sort nourselves out, what nonsense about Japan. This must be measures to deal with the bird flu."

(2-3 irrelevant posts cursing the japanese in general)

"Hey, I can see troops in "white suits" and planes flying at low altitudes. If you can see them too, can you please acknowledge?"

(5 posts agree)

"I see people being snatched out of their houses"

(curses & swears at everything and anything in particular - Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaopeng and the Bird Flu included)

"Let's see - YuShu, ChengDu, LaSuTung, Jie-Wu (and other locations which i can't read) all inaccessible for the next few days? What the hell?"

"The troops are finally here. They're walking through the village (or town), checking the houses. I should be fine since I don't breed any birds."

"It's ridiculous to think that they can drag people off the streets just because of the bird flu."

"I hear that they're snatching people whose names are on a printed namelist. They're only checking the houses of those in their vicinities."

"Hu Jing Tao & Wen Jia Bao have already said that to eliminate the bird flu, we must start by getting rid of the human cases. Only via ridding the human cases can transmission be stopped."

"I'm going to turn vegan from today onwards."

The above is a translation of messages appearing on July 20. Today boxan is providing a translation of part of the message, but a translation of the longer message seems more appropriate, in light of the WHO warning based on new H5N1 bird flu outbreaks in Indonesia and Russia.

The above exchange appears to be between two students in southeastern Qinghai Province. The commentary is unconfirmed, but if true would certain sugest a stage 6 pandemic in China.

China has not responded to the WHO request to visit neighboring Xinjiang Province, which is just south of the recent outbreak in Novosibursk, Russia. The WHO visit to Qinghai raised serious questions about additional information of the H5N1 at Qinghai Lake. Other boxan reports detail 10 strains of H5N1 circulating in China, including 7 that have been found in humans.

These data, if true, would point toward a massive cover-up of a raging bird flu pandemic in China


Добавлено в [mergetime]1122062256[/mergetime]
Military Enforcing Quarantine in H5N1 Pandemic in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 22, 2005

According to a news report by BBS (they call this a "location", that's a literal translation. i think it's actually a website.) on the morning of 22nd July, the bird flu is still spreading. This (the spread) has caused serious disturbances in a YuShu farm to the Northwest of Qinghai. Based on information from forums / message boards, it is understood that on the 12th July, this farm / farming area was discovered to have many people afflicted with acute pneumonia (i'm not sure if it's via identification of symptoms or was it actually lab confirmed). Following this, authorities entered the area and isolated the patients. Their whereabouts are unknown. They also forcibly inspected surrounding areas and isolated those with "abnormal respiratory problems". On 18th July, the decision was made to close / quarantine the area. This was aimed at preventing / restricting the movement of people in and out of the area. This led the residents to "lose control of themselves" and revolt against the authorities, leading to many casualties. To prevent a chain reaction linked to the Tibetan question (this is a guess, nomads / Tibetans are the words alluded here), on the 20th, the PLA sent in huge numbers of re-inforcements to quell the uprising. At the moment, the extent of the disturbances there is unclear as the area still remains under martial law.

The following is the extract of the forum / message board taken by Boxun.

Title: Something's Happening

[Description / Moderator's Comments, possibly] (i'm guessing what that was. but the text should go along the following lines)
I finally understand why. Over here in the farming area, there are people rioting and they've inflicted casualties on the troops. That farming area is the same one that has been quarantined. I hear the disturbances were huge, and that's why re-inforcements have been sent.

"Does anyone know what happened at that farm."

"Received / Affirmative" (Irrelevant / error i think)

"Fighting, fighting, fighting, fighting over a bunch of birds!"

"The farm - nothing was mentioned about it. Just closed for no good reason, ostensibly for 'lessons' ('lessons' is my take, google translates it as exams, if so, it might fit, but i believe that the literal meaning is that of lessons)"

"We'd better ignore it. There's nothing to see. The other forum has already said that it's because of the fighting between the Tibetans / nomads and the doctors. The troops have been sent to suppress the disturbances. The farming area (actually, i think farming community might be a better word) has not been quarantined because of lessons, but rather its been isolated because of the bird flu. The investigators there are in fact linked to the arrests that had been made previously."

The above human translation supports earlier messages indicating the military is enforcing a mandatory quarantine in Qinhai province related to the H5N1 bird flu outbreak described in Nature and Science two weeks ago. Additional information is being withheld by China.

Now, the quarantine enforcement is being met with resistance form the local population.

Flu pandemic could kill 67 million Americans


Fri 24 Jun 2005 02:03 pm CST

To learn more visit myDNA's Influenza Center Read More

A new report from Trust for America's Health found that over half a million Americans could die and over 2.3 million could be hospitalized if a moderately severe strain of a pandemic flu virus hits the U.S.

Additionally, based on the model estimates, 66.9 million Americans are at risk of contracting the disease. TFAH's report, "A Killer Flu? 'Inevitable' Epidemic Could Kill Millions" also examines shortfalls in the amount of available antiviral medication and hospital capacity to respond to an epidemic. Additionally, the report examines gaps in U.S. readiness and compares U.S. preparedness to the United Kingdom and Canadian efforts. TFAH offers detailed recommendations to help improve U.S. preparedness.

TFAH provides a series of detailed recommendations to help ensure the U.S. is better prepared regardless of whether a pandemic occurs as soon as this year or in several years. With a crisis looming, the US plan for the pandemic should be finalized and the President should be designated an official with authority to coordinate the US response across federal agencies. Other top level recommendations include taking:
Immediate steps of outbreak tracking, stockpiling medical supplies, and developing emergency communications plans;
Intermediate steps of stockpiling additional antivirals and developing surge capacity plans for hospitals and health care providers; and
Longer range steps to increase vaccine production and the development of new technologies for vaccines.

TFAH's analysis, based on the estimates of the severity of the current strain circulating in Asia, follows warnings issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) about the severity of the pandemic, "killer flu" threat. The projections are based on a modeling program developed by the CDC using WHO estimates that approximately 25 percent of countries' populations could become infected and descriptions of the severity of the strain as likely to be in the range between the levels of the extremely severe 1918 influenza pandemic and the relatively mild 1968 pandemic. Some scientists believe the current avian flu strain is on the more severe side of the possible range. The more mild and more severe estimates are also included in the appendix of TFAH's report.
Bird Flu Pandemic Spreading to Chengdu Sichuan in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 22, 2005

Four positive eruptions unclear reasons disease nine people die
(Abundant news on July 23rd, 2005)
(The Central News Agency Taibei on 22nd news) the Chinese Central Committee Television today evening reports, recently one month, the Sichuan capital positive city had the unclear reason disease, until now discovers 20 examples, 9 people died, 6 person of perilous.

The report indicates, the Sichuan health department evening notifys, from June 24th to July 21st, the capital is positive first, two, three people hospital one after another admits 20 examples unclear reasons disease patient, the patient arises the initial period all appears the high fever, feels weak, the partner has disgusting, vomits, after that hypodermic has ðöѪ, symptom and so on shock.

Up to July 21st, has nine patients does not govern the death, one patient leaves the hospital, ten patients still in hospital treatment, six person of perilous. (Abundant news boxun.com)

It is said, the patient completely is the peasant, the age in 30 to 70 years old between.

The notification indicates, in uninhabited arises with the patient close contact, has not discovered the infection phenomenon.

The notification also said, the accurate cause of disease also must further verify, the laboratory examination work is being carried on.

According to what is stated, after the Chinese medical department receives the epidemic situation report, has sent out to unite the expert group goes Sichuan assists the local development medical service to treat and cure, the epidemiology investigation as well as the epidemic situation control processing work. (Abundant news boxun.com)

The above report raises the possibility of H5N1 bird flu spread to Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province. The earlier boxun reports described human outbreaks of H5N1 in Qinghai Province, which is sparsely populated. Chengdu is a major city with a population of about 10 million. The above report indicates there are 20 infections with 9 dead and 6 more critical. The case fatality rate would be very high and consistent with bird flu rates seen in Vietnam and Thailand last year. However, the H5N1 at Qingahi Lake is quite virulent in birds, and the reports from China suggest the infections are spreading quickly.

Sichuan is just to the east of Qinghai. The weather has turned cold early at Qingahi, and it is snowing at Qinghai Lake. Therefore, the migration from Qinghai Lake may have already begun, which may be spreading H5N1 to points south and east in China. Chengdu could accelerate spread with a dense population and an International airport.

Although not confirmed, the timing, location, and high fatality rate support a raging flu pandemic in China

UPDATE: 2005.07.22
How far is China?
In May and early June 2005, anonymous postings surfaced on boxun.com, a Chinese language website (see peacehall.com), which mentioned 8000 dead migratory birds as well as 700 dead people at Qinghai Lake, all from bird flu. There were pictures of birds, perhaps dead or dying, but these were unclear, like from a cellphone, and one appeared to be doctored. Then China allegedly arrested the (faceless) group of writers behind the articles, and it became silent, as far as we could see.

What makes the postings hard to read is the fact that only machine translations from Chinese (Mandarin) to English exist for most of them. Hard, but not totally impossible. They take some personal interpretation, or reading between the lines. Most of the postings are re-posted in machine translation by Dr. Henry Niman, an American virologist, on his site recombinomics.com. Two things make Dr. Niman somewhat hard to stomach: he seems quite focused on himself and his specific theories, and his commentaries give the impression that they themselves come from a translating machine, one without a spellchecker. A little change in attitude, plus that spellchecker, would make him a lot more palatable to a lot more people.

In the meantime, the claim about the number of dead birds in the early boxun.com reports has been validated, by the WHO and by China, who released numbers of 5000 and 6000 respectively (articles in Science and Nature add to the validation). The boxun.com articles in May specified the same species of birds that were later confirmed, which further enhances their credibility; how did they know that?. So while it is obvious that unconfirmed sources need to be treated with the utmost caution, it becomes harder to ignore the boxun.com reports: they were right about the birds. And we can not rule out the possibility that there still is a regime in China that at least at times, and at certain levels, could be labeled "repressive", and that may attempt to silence the bird flu situation. The WHO still has no access to areas, other than Qinghai, where bird flu has been reported.

The claims of the Qinghai human deaths remain unconfirmed. The WHO/FAO mission to China in June concluded there were no human casualties, even though the Chinese said only two people were tested. But, as the Effect Measure blog rightly pointed out, the WHO has lost a lot of credibility in the past few weeks, so much so that "now only bad news is believable". We will cover the potential consequences of this credibility loss later.

These days, new postings appear on boxun.com. Whether (some of) these postings come from the same anonymous group is unclear. They describe individual human deaths, in great detail, complete with specifics about different strains of bird flu and age, profession and gender of the victims. The postings are in fact so detailed that there is no doubt the author(s) has/have a degree of knowledge about the subject, they may even be doctors or virologists involved in testing of samples. The incidents cover both 2004 and 2005, and took place in many different locations across China: Qinghai, Hunan, Ningxia, Fujian, Shantou, Zhanjiang are all mentioned.

Remarkable about the details is the variety of bird flu strains that are described, a total of 10 different ones, including for instance H5N1L33, H5N1RK7, H5N1RW4. Some are apparently more lethal than others, with H5N1RK7 the worst. 8 out of the 10 strains are said to be confirmed in people. It gets scarier where birds or people are reported with multiple strains; this would give the virus the opportunity to re-assort and perhaps recombine into a strain that could pass easily between people. There are also persistent stories about emergency hospital isolation wards for patients with pneumonia. Pneumonia is common among bird flu sufferers.

The past few days, postings on boxun.com go a lot further. On July 15, a possible connection between H5N1 and Chinese bioweapons research is mentioned. On July 18, there are, again very detailed, descriptions of an ebola outbreak in two provinces in southern China. The past two days bring reports of troop movements near Qinghai, of areas being quarantined, people being taken away and fights breaking out between farmers and doctors, and ultimately the military.

For now, all boxun.com reports remain unconfirmed, except for the bird deaths at Qinghai Lake. And there is still a chance that these are a bunch of people who want to discredit their government. We do not even know if the postings are written by the same sources. But the wealth of specifics and details makes it harder to dismiss them offhand. What seems clear, even without boxun.com, is that H5N1 is widespread in China, probably more so than in any other country. Add that to the fact that about 60 people have already died from bird flu in other Asian countries, while China claims no human infections whatsoever, and we can not help wondering.

Posted by RoelMeijer
2005.07.22 // H5N1 China boxun ebola // #

Во Владимирском НИИ защиты животных подтвердили опасность птичьего гриппа в Новосибирске
27.07.2005 17:40

Во Владимирском НИИ защиты животных подтвердили опасность птичьего гриппа, обнаруженного в Новосибирской области. Напомним, в регионе была отмечена массовая гибель домашней птицы. В районах области погибло более 1500 голов. Во владимирском институте проводились лабораторные исследования по материалам, поступившим из Новосибирска. Ученые доказали опасность вируса для человека, поэтому при исследованиях в лабораториях введены повышенные меры предосторожности. Окончательный диагноз заболевания птиц в Новосибирской области, скорее всего, будет объявлен завтра.
Автор: Кристина Давыдова



Вирус птичьего гриппа, поступивший из Новосибирска на исследования в спецлаборатории во Владимире, опасен для человека.

Об этом сообщает ИТАР-ТАСС. Речь идет о вирусе гриппа А, это подтип эйч-5. Иными словами, подозрения специалистов подтвердились. В лабораториях введены повышенные меры безопасности.


ЗЫ - Из всех H5, только H5N1 опасен для человека
Nature: Flu viruses mix it up



Published online: 28 July 2005; | doi:10.1038/news050725-9
Flu viruses mix it up
Tom Simonite

Study of gene swapping adds to pandemic fears.

The flu jab sometimes doesn't work, thanks to viruses that mix and match their genes.

© Getty

A map of the evolution of flu viruses has revealed just how frequently they swap genes with each other.

The result renews fears that a nasty virus such as avian influenza could pick up a gene from a human flu virus that makes it more transmissible, leading to a possible pandemic. And it highlights how easy it is for a strain of flu to evolve for which we don't have a vaccine.

The most serious causes of human flu, called A viruses, have the ability to swap genes when they infect the same person. This reassortment can produce strains that are more problematic because they differ from the ones our immune systems have learnt to recognize.

To investigate how often this happens, researchers looked at the published genome sequences of 156 flu strains that circulated in New York state between 1999 and 2004.

Swap shop

They constructed family trees that show how these viruses slowly evolved over time. And they discovered at least four instances where a virus had picked up a gene from another virus through reassortment. Edward Holmes, a biologist at the Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, University Park, and colleagues report the results in PLoS Biology1.

In one of these instances the gene swap resulted in a particularly nasty strain that struck New York in the winter of 2003-04. This 'Fujian' strain was produced when a virus that was common the previous year picked up a gene from a relatively harmless strain, which had been around for some years but infected very few people.

The gene was for a protein that the virus uses to bind to cells it is going to infect. The version the dominant strain picked up was very different to the one it had before, catching people's immune systems, and vaccines, unawares.

The researchers say they found a wider variety of strains circulating at any one time than expected, and more instances of gene swapping.

"Multiple lineages coexist at the same time and place, and the key thing is that they are reassorting and doing so quite frequently," says Holmes.

Clearer picture

Alan Hay, director of the World Health Organization's UK flu centre says the work will "give us a better idea of the variation and extent of recombination".

Hay adds that flu researchers already had a good idea of how reassortment happens, from studies that tracked specific genes for surface proteins. But Holmes's research goes beyond this by using whole genome sequences, he says, giving a clearer picture of how often this happens.

"I think these analyses will help us understand in detail the evolution of the influenza virus, taking into account more than just these genes," Hay says.


Holmes says that further studies investigating the genome sequences of bird-flu viruses could help us understand whether recombination is as just common in those.

Some researchers are now trying to create recombinant strains in the lab, using bird and human viruses, to see what a pandemic virus might look like and how easily it might form.


Holmes E. C., et al. PLoS Biol., 3. 300 (2005).

Добавлено в [mergetime]1122570990[/mergetime]
Официально объявлена 10% вероятность...

Flu pandemic preparations to be tested

Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott says the states and territories have agreed to test their readiness to deal with a flu pandemic in Australia.

The World Health Organisation says there is a 10 per cent chance a flu pandemic will break out in the next 12 months.

Mr Abbott says the issue was high on the agenda when he met his state and territory counterparts in Alice Springs today.

He says the states and territories have assured him they are ready and have agreed to take part in a mock exercise before the end of the year.

"That won't just be a desktop trial run but will be a live trial of getting our health system to start coping with the victims of bird flu, should it ever break out," he said.

ACT Health Minister Simon Corbell says he is confident states and territories are well-prepared.

"Australia as a nation has a very well-advanced level of preparedness and understanding of what would be the key issues and the key responses needed should some sort of influenza pandemic occur in our country," he said.

Rapid Evolution in Qinghai Lake Migratory Bird Flu H5N1

Recombinomics Commentary
July 28, 2005

China has reported no outbreak of human cases. But Dr Chan, formerly Hong Kong's director of health, who helped contain the 1997 Avian influenza outbreak in the city state, and the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, said, "We will not give up on our efforts. We owe it to the world, because when we talk of pandemic influenza risk it is a global health security issue. To that extent, we will continue our efforts in order to help us to understand the evolution of the virus."

The situation in China, she said, "is very serious . . . and that's why we have not shied away from working very closely with the government to give us specimens."

The need for additional specimens from Qinghai Lake is clear. China only collected samples from 12 dead birds, 10 bar-headed geese, a great black headed gull, and a brown headed gull. The sequences from all 12 isolates were very similar. They all have acquired the human PB2 polymorphism E627K, which had not been seen previously in a H5N1 isolate from a bird. All prior H5N1 with that change had common form mammals, including humans. Virtually all humans infected with a virus containing E627K had died, suggesting the Qinghai isolates have the potential for being lethal in people also.

Analysis of the sequences revealed many polymorphisms normally found in European isolates, offer genetic evidence that the birds at Qinghai Lake were infected with recombinants between viruses in Europe and Asia. The recombinations happen via dual infections, and one of the 10 bar headed geese had evidence of two infections. Since the Hong Kong / Shantou group had sequenced all 10 bar-headed geese, the two geese sequences deposited by the Beijing group represented independent isolates from the same birds (the number and naming by the two groups is slightly off. China called its geese isolates black headed geese while Hong Kong / Shantou called them bar-headed geese, but there was only one species of geese tested so the Beijing isolates were from the same birds as two of the Hong Kong / Shantou isolates). However, one of the Beijing isolates, A/black headed goose/Qinghai/1/2005, had four polymorphism at the 5' end of the HA genes that were not found in the other Qinghai isolates. Instead they were in isolates from Hong Kong, A/Ck/HK/2133.1/2003, or Guangdong, A/duck/Guangdong/173/04 indicating the Qingahi isolate was a recombinant. However, the recombinant was from one of the geese that also had the common sequence, indicating dual infection was present in this bird.

More analysis will likely show that such complexity exists in more birds because many of the submitted sequences coded for non-functional proteins suggesting additional isolates coding for functional proteins were present in these birds. Thus more research was required in both the birds that died initially, as well as birds that were preparing to leave, because these birds probably contain more recombinants, which will soon arrive in areas to the east, south, and west, of the summer location.

China's refusal to collect and share samples is scandalous and jeopardizes almost all neighboring countries. Moreover, boxun reports suggest there have been associated human cases in Qinghai and possibly Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, increasing concerns that China is covering up a raging flu pandemic.

Instead of accellerating sample collection. China shut down the Shantou lab and stone-walled requests for sequences and samples.

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