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probegallo
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?News...Cr=bird&Cr1=flu

Добавлено в [mergetime]1120150932[/mergetime]
Some reports now circulating suggest that WHO has downgraded its assessment of the pandemic threat. These reports are unfounded...

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_06_30/en/index.html
probegallo
Довольено важное замечание, я его как-то пропустил в мае:

Flu Pandemic Unpreparedness - Tamiflu Containment Myth

Recombinomics Commentary
May 18, 2005

>> Scientists believe that if Tamiflu is quickly supplied at the site of an initial pandemic outbreak, it could help to contain the bug for as long as six months or even eliminate it. Six months is about what researchers would need to develop a vaccine based on the pandemic strain that emerges. <<

Although Tamiflu could contain H5N1, the available evidence suggests that this strategy is much more wishful thinking than a approach likely to succeed. Assuming the H5N1 infections in people could be quickly identified, which is a major assumption because H5N1 has been endemic to Vietnam for at least several years and there is no comprehensive survey of where it is and is not in humans, there would still be major bird flu containment issues.. A recent survey of ducks and chickens indicated H5N1 was in 71% of ducks and 21% if chickens in the Mekong Delta. Most of these infections were in asymptomatic birds and now evidence is emerging that pigs in Indonesia may be asymptomatically infected. It seems likely that pigs in Vietnam and Thailand are similarly infected,

In addition, Tamiflu was used to try to contain an H5N1 outbreak in tigers in a Sri Racha zoo in Thailand. Prophylactic treatment, combined with culling, failed to stop H5N1 and 147 tigers died or were euthanized, even though Tamiflu was used at double the recommended dose.

Possible H5N1 problems were forecast in in vitro assays. Tests of Tamiflu against all 9 N serotypes indicated that the drug could inhibit spread of the virus, but N1 was among the most resistant serotypes. Recent data with H5N1 again showed that Tamiflu could inhibit the virus, but even more drug was required. However, the supply of Tamiflu is limited.

However, it is the most recent report on treating humans known to be infected with H5N1 that raises a major red flag on use of Tamiflu to control or eliminate H5N1. Media reports suggest that Tamiflu resistance developed in one patient being treated with Tamiflu. The number of reported H5N1 human infections has been exceedingly low, so resistance in this group indicates antiviral resistance will be common. However, because it is possible that the number of non-hospitalized patients infected with H5N1 may be markedly higher than the reported cases, Tamiflu resistance in H5N1 may already be much more common than the one cited case.

Thus, stockpiling Tamiflu may make stockpilers feel that the supplies may limit or eliminated H5N1, but real data, although limited, suggest the containment plan, like the surveillance plan, is not reality based.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05180501...ontainment.html
probegallo
Хорший список

Books and bookmarks to organize pandemic preparations

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=17926

Добавлено в [mergetime]1120342980[/mergetime]
Особо

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050701faes...html?mode=print

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839
Пэтро
probegallo
Скажите честно вы боитесь умереть? Я например нет. И вам того желаю. Все мы когдато умрем. Во время пандемии умереть это ж даже интересно. Вокруг куча трупов, а ты как дурак живой. И вот бах ты тоже заразился. И умер. Нет ничего более чудесного чем умереть во время пандемии!

Я для этого не буду учить английский язык чтоб не читать ваши опусы, а то еще передумаю умирать.
probegallo
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/...ina.birdflu.ap/

U.N.: Bird flu at tipping point
Health official calls for mass vaccination of Asian poultry

Monday, July 4, 2005 Posted: 0549 GMT (1349 HKT)

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- The outbreak of bird flu in Asia has reached a critical stage and the disease could easily become a human pandemic if it isn't quickly controlled, a U.N. health expert warned Monday.

Dr. Shigeru Omi of the World Health Organization and other specialists who addressed the opening of a three-day U.N. conference on bird flu called for mass vaccination of poultry, saying the virus has "tightened its grip" on Asia and is capable of springing major surprises.

"We believe we are at the tipping point. Either we ... reverse this trend or things will get out of hand," Omi said.

"We must have an all out war against this virus," he told reporters after opening a three-day U.N. conference on bird flu virus, which has killed 54 people in Asia.

The virus currently appears to spread only by close association of humans and poultry. But medical experts fear it could mutate into a form which can easily pass among people, triggering a global pandemic especially since humans have not developed resistance to the virulent H5N1 strain.

"The virus has behaved in ways that suggests it remains as unstable, unpredictable and versatile as ever," said Omi. "Judging by its performance today we need to be on constant alert for surprises," he said in a speech earlier.

The U.N. meeting is co-organized by the WHO, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health, known by its French acronym OIE.

Omi said the virus poses the threat of a pandemic, especially after re-emerging in China where the virus killed 6,000 wild migratory birds last month in the remote Qinghai province.

He said wild birds had previously been considered "reasonably resilient" to H5N1, and their deaths in such large number shows the virus can have unexpected consequences.

Omi noted that there have been 64 human cases in Asia this year, mainly in Vietnam, compared to 44 cases in 2004. Of the 64, 22 died, compared to 32 fatalities for all of last year, he said.

Vietnam is now "chronically infected," while Cambodia and possibly Indonesia have also reported their first human cases, he said.

The prevention of human pandemic relies on efficient control of infection in animals, said Joseph Domenech, the FAO's chief veterinary officer, in his speech.

The only way to control it is by imposing mass vaccination of poultry and speeding up efforts to develop new poultry vaccines, he said.

"Avian influenza is not just an Asian problem. No poultry producing country is safe from the occurrence of the avian influenza as long as there are pockets of infections in Asia," Domenech said.

At the news conference, Domenech said the region needs about US$100 million (euro83 million) over the next two years to fund a viable program to fight bird flu, but so far only one-tenth that amount has been raised.

Donations from international donors such as the EU and the U.S. were "still not enough and still not coming quick enough," he said.

The meeting's objectives include identifying practices in the production and marketing of live animals in Asia that might endanger human health. In most of rural Asia, poultry, domestic animals and farmers live in close proximity, often sharing the same room, increasing the chances of the virus jumping species.

Countries must tighten regulations in the production, transport and marketing of poultry and poultry products, especially since live bird markets in Asia have played a role in the spread of virus to humans, said T. Fujita, OIE's regional representative for Asia and the Pacific.

He said efficient inspection service is needed to detect and eliminate sick birds from live markets and to ensure that different animal species are sold in different premises, he said.
Пэтро
Интересно, а как он этот птичий грипп на кур действует?
Они чихают или кашлюют? Чесно говоря никогда не видел как чихают куры. Их же может разорвать на куски.
У нее повышается тепература? Она потеет?

А чтоб заразится, курица на тебя чихнуть должна? На близком расстоянии?

Курицу с птичьим гриппом дольше варить надо?

typhoon
Цитата

Курицу с птичьим гриппом дольше варить надо?


lol.gif только жарить..... до полного подгорания
probegallo
Avian Dis. 1990 Apr-Jun;34(2):406-11. Related Articles, Links

Persistence of avian influenza viruses in water.

Stallknecht DE, Shane SM, Kearney MT, Zwank PJ.

Department of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge 70803.

Persistence of five avian influenza viruses (AIVs) derived from four waterfowl species in Louisiana and representing five hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes was determined in distilled water at 17 C and 28 C. Infectivity was determined over 60 days by microtiter endpoint titration. One AIV was tested over 91 days at 4 C. Linear regression models for these viruses predicted that an initial concentration of 1 x 10(6) TCID50/ml water could remain infective for up to 207 days at 17 C and up to 102 days at 28 C. Significant differences in slopes for AIV persistence models were detected between treatment temperatures and among viruses. Results suggest that these viruses are adapted to transmission on waterfowl wintering habitats. Results also suggest a potential risk associated with waterfowl and domestic poultry sharing a common water source.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.f...0&dopt=Abstract
probegallo
New Avian Influenza Variant Found in China

The avian influenza that killed 1000 or more migratory birds at Lake Qinghai in western China in mid-May may represent a new and more lethal form of the HN51 virus, Chinese researchers report. The results suggest the virus is evolving and raise the possibility that surviving birds could spread it over an even wider area, endangering more poultry and increasing the chances of further genetic changes that could spark a deadly human pandemic.

Breeding ground. Flu experts worry that migratory birds infected with a new strain of the H5N1 virus, like the bar-headed goose (left), might carry it far from their breeding ground at Lake Qinghai.
CREDIT: (Inset) © John C. White
The H5N1 virus first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, causing massive poultry losses and killing six people. Since then, H5N1 has killed 54 people and over 140 million fowl, and it continues to expand its range in China.

Jinhua Liu of the College of Veterinary Medicine in Beijing and colleagues fully sequenced four isolates recovered from various Lake Qinghai bird species and found them all to be very similar to each other but distinct from any H5N1 sequences posted in GenBank. The researchers also tested the pathogenicity of the virus by using it to infect mice, which succumbed more quickly than mice infected with other H5N1 strains. The team publishes its results 8 July in Science. Similar findings, from other groups, are presented today in Nature.
But some questions remain unresolved, such as how the virus reached this sparsely populated corner of China. Since H5N1 appeared, researchers have debated whether migratory birds can spread it. Some aquatic birds are known to host strains of the virus with no or minimal symptoms. But the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization says there is no evidence tying outbreaks in poultry to wild birds.

A more pressing question is where these migratory birds might carry the virus next. A priority, says David Melville, an ornithologist in New Zealand, should be determining if surviving birds are carrying a weakened strain of the virus, or if some species or individual birds are carrying the same variant with minimal health effects.

"These are the important questions," says George Gao, a virologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Microbiology and the study's corresponding author. To answer them, Gao and colleagues will begin collecting additional samples from healthy birds over the next couple months.

--DENNIS NORMILE

http://discuss.agonist.org/yabbse/index.ph...;threadid=22049
probegallo
Flu officials pull back from raising global alert level

from Nature
http://www.nature.com/drugdisc/news/articl...es/436006a.html
Declan Butler

Conflicting results from Vietnam cause concern.

Are more cases of H5N1 cropping up in Vietnam?
FAO

The world last week seemed to edge closer to the brink of a flu pandemic. On 30 June, officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) revealed that they recently considered raising the threat level of a global pandemic, from the current 3 on a six-point scale, to 4 or even 5.

The scare was triggered a few weeks ago when several research groups visiting Vietnam filed preliminary reports that many people with mild cases of influenza — and those in contact with them — were testing positive for the deadly avian flu strain H5N1. This suggested that there was widespread human-to-human transmission of the virus.

Subsequent tests have so far failed to confirm this, and WHO spokesman Dick Thompson is keen to play down the incident. “It was just unpublished information provided to us in preliminary form that spurred an investigation,” he says. “We thought about upgrading the alert. We looked at it fast and strongly, and based on that decided not to upgrade.”

But take a closer look, and the picture in Vietnam is one of confusion rather than reassurance. The first signs of trouble came in May, with reports of small clusters of human cases of H5N1, including a rise in the infection of older people and an increase in milder cases — all signs consistent with the possibility that the virus had mutated to achieve improved, although still inefficient, human-to-human spread (see Nature 435, 390; 2005.

Concern mounted in subsequent weeks as several international groups investigated the clusters using different methods, including the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which amplifies DNA sequences, and western blots, which use antibodies to detect proteins. Despite using different tests, each of the teams reported that “substantial proportions” of the hundreds of people it had tested seemed to be infected with H5N1.

That led the WHO to consider upgrading the pandemic threat level to 4 (small, localized clusters of human infection) or 5 (large clusters of infection) — just one step away from a full-blown global pandemic. But first it asked an international team of experts, including Masato Tashiro, a virologist at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Tokyo, to retest many of the samples and some new ones, using the WHO's own PCR tests.

They found no evidence of clusters of human-to-human transmission. “This is good news,” Tashiro says, relieved that his worst suspicions weren't confirmed. But it remains unclear why the various groups got different results.

Samples have now been sent to a WHO laboratory in Hong Kong for the last word in confirmation: antibody neutralization assays. These take time as they involve growing large amounts of the virus for analysis, but a firm conclusion is expected by the end of the month.

In the meantime, the WHO is holding off raising the alarm. “Because of the consequences of such a change, the WHO is following a cautious approach,” it said in a statement last week. Pushing the level to 4 for the first time would mean deploying the international stockpile of antiviral drugs to try to contain or stamp out the spread, and would probably result in countries restricting travel to Vietnam.

But Tashiro remains concerned that he and his colleagues didn't have enough time to check all of the clinical and epidemiological information associated with the initial lab samples. Follow-up work is also complicated by the fact that recovered patients have now returned home, making it hard to track down people they might have infected. “We still have a big problem collecting enough good data,” he says.

Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Unit at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, says that much of the uncertainty over the prevalence of H5N1 could be avoided if Vietnam had better facilities for testing samples locally. “The international community continues to suggest that countries ship samples out somewhere else,” he says, “while doing absolutely nothing to invest in enhancing the scientific capacity of the Vietnamese to respond to the epidemics themselves.”

In the meantime, Tashiro adds that even if final tests confirm his negative results, “the fundamental situation has not changed”. Many are concerned that July and August will bring a new and bigger wave of flu cases in Vietnam, as happened last year during the hot rainy season. And recent events in China bode just as ill. Scientists investigating migratory birds infected with H5N1 in western China are now warning that these pose an explosive risk of spreading the virus along their migration routes as they fly south in September (see ‘Infected birds poised to take flu virus south’).

At a UN meeting on bird flu held this week in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the WHO's western Pacific regional director, Shigeru Omi, warned that H5N1 remains at a “tipping point”.
probegallo
AFP INTERVIEW: WHO prepares for worst case scenario

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/60020.asp

World Health Organisation scientist Hitoshi Oshitani spends his days planning for a nightmare scenario -- a bird flu pandemic among humans that would kill millions and bring nations to their knees.
.
There is much that experts still don not know about the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza -- exactly how humans contract it from infected poultry, and why so many of its victims are healthy youngsters.
.
But Oshitani says they do know vulnerable countries are ill-prepared and that if the virus mutates and erupts among humans in one of Asia's crowded mega-cities, it will be impossible to prevent it from becoming a pandemic.
.
"If a pandemic starts we cannot do anything to stop it. What we can do, once a pandemic starts, is just to reduce the negative impact by being better prepared," said the Manila-based WHO policy-maker.
.
"It's probably just a matter of time. Every 30 to 40 years we have had a pandemic," he told AFP on the sidelines of an international conference on bird flu held this week in the Malaysian capital.
.
After working on the front line of the SARS crisis, which struck terror into the region and beyond in 2003, he says the deadly pneumonia was in retrospect an "easy disease to control" because it was only spread by people who had fevers.
.
"Usually for influenza, it's almost impossible to control. That's why we have huge outbreaks every year."
.
To date, most bird flu victims have caught the disease from animals, but the fear is it will mutate into a form that can spread easily among humans, triggering a contagion that could kill tens of millions of people.
.
Oshitani, who specializes in communicable disease surveillance and response, says WHO experts are working on models to prevent a pandemic if an outbreak of the mutated virus was detected in time, but figuring out how to contain such a virulent disease is baffling them.
.
"It's not simple and we don't have any experience. (With) polio control or measles control we have a lot of experience ... but for this particular case it's extremely difficult to come up with a good plan," he says.
.
Measures being contemplated are to treat infected people and surrounding communities with antiviral drugs, and restrict their movement to prevent others from the disease.
.
But if a deadly flu virus was being spread by people with no symptoms, whose movements were not able to be controlled, in a country that could not afford expensive medicines, halting an outbreak would be almost impossible, he says.
.
Oshitani says the WHO has a stockpile of 60,000-70,000 doses of antiviral drugs in its Manila regional office, but the logistics of getting them to a remote community in time to stop the disease would be difficult.
.
"Our window of opportunity will be just two or three weeks," he says. After that the virus would almost certainly have moved on.
.
And in teeming cities like the Thai capital Bangkok or Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City, the sheer mass and movement of people would mean the virus would have to be allowed to run its course through the population.
.
"There are no other alternative tools to stop the spread," Oshitani said.
.
What would happen then is the stuff of nightmares.
.
Water and electricity supplies could be disrupted because utility workers are too sick to maintain them, the public transportation system could be abandoned for fear of infection, and those who cannot afford drugs would succumb in huge numbers.
.
"If more than 20 percent of the population is affected, it could affect a whole range of social activities," Oshitani said, adding the crisis would no longer be just a health issue, but one which could damage entire economies.
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"People do not want to get infected in a bus or the train. People may not want to go to the supermarket. So how to maintain that social life is a big challenge, particularly in urban areas."
.
Oshitani said there were worrying signs a mutation is looming. Growing numbers of people are being infected with bird flu -- 64 cases have emerged in Asia so far this year, compared with 44 for the whole of 2004.
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The disease is still circulating widely in the region, and the virus has continued to change and mutate since jumping to humans in 1997, when it killed six people in Hong Kong.
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Since resurfacing in 2003, it has killed 55 people in Asia including 39 in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.
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"These are all bad indicators in terms of the risk of a pandemic," he said.
.
Experts from the World Organisation for Animal Health and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation this week unveiled a 100 million dollar plan to rein in bird flu within a decade.
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But as a backup measure, the WHO is urging countries to prepare by stockpiling antiviral drugs and readying hospitals to deal with large numbers of sick people.
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While some developing countries have started to work on a strategy, others with less resources such as Cambodia and Laos have barely begun, Oshitani said.
.
"If you start thinking of what you should do after a pandemic starts, it will be too late," he warned. — AFP


Добавлено в [mergetime]1120706780[/mergetime]
H5N1 in Russia Kazakhstan and Mongolia?

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06080503..._Migration.html

Добавлено в [mergetime]1120706946[/mergetime]
The Qinghai catastrophe should begin to spread in the next few weeks.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07060502...atastrophe.html
probegallo
Potential Flu Outbreak Has Economists Worried

The global economy could be profoundly disrupted as tens of millions of people die

The avian influenza spreading throughout Asia has so far confined its economic harm largely to farmers, who have had to slaughter tens of millions of their chickens and ducks.

But scientists and economists fear that if the virus were to mutate in such a way as to spread easily among humans, the global economy could be profoundly disrupted as tens of millions of people die.

Even if the deaths were largely limited to Asia, U.S. companies, particularly airlines, could suffer, said economist Eric Graber, president of the National Economists Club, which held a meeting Thursday to explore the financial ramifications of global epidemics.

In Asian countries, massive deaths would reduce productivity and slash output, he said. Even worse, "the fear factor" could spread up the globalized supply chain of manufactured goods, he said.

"People here could become afraid of buying products originating in those countries," he said. That could harm major importers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. "And people will be afraid of traveling in those countries," hurting U.S. airlines, he said.

A far bigger concern may be that Americans will continue to travel to Asia, and inadvertently bring back the deadly flu, said another meeting participant, Martin Apple, president of the Council of Scientific Society Presidents, an organization of the leaders of about 60 scientific federations and societies.

Apple said that in a "worst-case scenario," in which bird flu was easily passed from human to human, millions of Americans could die. World Health Organization officials have said the global death toll could reach 100 million. In a typical year, 36,000 Americans die from regular flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

So far, bird flu, caused by a strain called the H5N1 avian influenza virus, has spread to at least eight countries in Asia, killing about 55 people. But those deaths appear to have been caused by direct contact with infected fowl.

"Once we have human-to-human transmission, which is apparently just beginning, it becomes an extremely serious issue, unless it's contained," Apple said.

The virus is not yet out of control, he noted. "If we took a lot of concerted action in the next 100 days, we could have a big impact," he said. "If we fail to act in the next 180 days, I think we will pay the consequences."

Even if the virus never mutates, it could have a devastating economic impact if it were to reach this country and begin killing masses of animals, he said. This virus "has the potential for eliminating, at least for some period of time, the American poultry industry" as well as the pork industry, he said.

This week, scientists reported in the journals Nature and Science that, despite efforts to cull domesticated flocks of fowl, migratory geese that can fly far beyond China may be spreading bird flu.

The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia in 2002- 03 was limited in economic impact, said Maureen Lewis, senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. Even so, SARS did serious harm to certain economic sectors.

According to Lewis' study, over the course of the crisis, scheduled flight arrivals declined by about two-thirds in Southeast Asia, causing a sharp drop in business at hotels, restaurants and stores.

In Hong Kong, retail sales fell 50 percent. At the peak of the epidemic, the number of visitors and tourists dropped 80 percent in Taiwan and nearly as much in Singapore.

http://www.rednova.com/news/health/169063/...omists_worried/
probegallo
Australian Plan for Pandemic Influenza
http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/pub...uenza-index.htm

Canada Pandemic Plan (old)
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/cpip-pclcpi/

New Zealand Influenza Pandemic Action Plan (old)
http://www.moh.govt.nz/pandemic
probegallo
10 Questions
Dr. Shigeru Omi
BY BRYAN WALSH

JOEL NITO—AFP/GETTY IMAGES
The WHO's Dr. Shigeru Omi

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/art...1081430,00.html]http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501050718-1081430,00.html

Monday, Jul. 11, 2005
Shortly after health experts met last week in Kuala Lumpur to craft a plan to control avian flu, Dr. Shigeru Omi, Regional Director for the World Health Organization's (WHO) Western Pacific region, spoke with TIME's Bryan Walsh about the challenge of fighting a highly unpredictable virus, the need to harness international resources, and the terrible toll a human pandemic would take.

Are we closer to a flu pandemic than ever before?

The virus is already entrenched in this part of the world, number one. Second, the number of human cases is on the rise, particularly in Vietnam. And third, the virus continues to be unpredictable and unstable. That's why we have to remain constantly on alert.

Do we have the ability to prevent a pandemic?

This is not an easy battle. The virus is everywhere and very changeable. We are dealing with billions of animals, not just human beings. But I still believe there is a window of opportunity. That's why we should implement all the necessary strategies—cleaning up backyard farms, improving surveillance—not just on a piecemeal basis but comprehensively and thoroughly. There is no single panacea.

Are developed countries providing sufficient aid to carry out these measures?

The international community has already provided a lot of support, and I'm very grateful. But we need an additional $250 million altogether. This sounds like a big figure, but this is a lot less than the magnitude of the economic loss that a pandemic would cause.

Studies published last week showed that the virus is now circulating in migratory birds in western China. Could these birds spread the virus?

The findings certainly confirm that the virus is very unstable. Migratory birds used to be regarded as reasonably resistant to the virus, but now we find that's not the case. We cannot rule out the possibility that these birds will carry it to other areas. The most important thing is to test more samples from animals and humans in the area, so that we know how far the virus has spread.

Are you happy with the cooperation you've received from Beijing?

Overall, I am quite happy. We found they had aggressively culled poultry, and had restricted the movement of poultry and people. That's good, but we strongly recommend that the Chinese government get more samples from humans and animals. We need to know whether the virus is spreading among asymptomatic birds and humans.


How do you respond to charges that Chinese farmers have been using the flu drug Amantadine on their chickens?

The Chinese government has officially told the WHO that the government has never encouraged [use of] this drug for prevention purposes. We're waiting for more information. It's a very serious blow to our fight against this virus if amantadine has been used in an inappropriate manner, because this drug would normally play an important role in treating influenza.

Does the WHO support Vietnam's efforts to develop its own bird-flu vaccine?

We understand why Vietnam wants to produce its own vaccine—because there may not be enough vaccine from the West for developing countries. [But] if the vaccine quality is not well controlled, the vaccine will cause more problems than it solves. Our job is not to stop the Vietnamese but to make sure the vaccine produced will be safe and effective.

Vietnam has seen rising case numbers with a lower mortality rate. What does this mean for the virus?

Our investigations have concluded that, so far, there's no evidence of efficient human-to-human transmission there. But given the unpredictable nature of the virus, the longer the current situation persists, the more chance the virus will achieve efficient human-to-human transmission.

Are there any genetic changes in the virus?

The H5N1 virus has undergone significant genetic changes over the past several years, but there's no evidence so far of a specific change that makes the virus more transmissible to humans.

You've said that 100 million people could die in a worst-case pandemic. Do you still believe that?

If [a pandemic] happens, the consequences could be very serious, and the magnitude of human casualties could be in the order of millions of deaths. One hundred million is just one of so many possible figures. What's important is to understand the serious potential consequences and prepare for them.


From the Jul. 18, 2005 issue of TIME Asia Magazine
probegallo
https://www.mmrs.fema.gov/news/influenza/20...2005-06-10.aspx

Headlines: Influenza News
June 10, 2005, CIDRAP
Foreign Affairs Magazine to Feature "The Next Pandemic"
Excerpt from the article:

The influential journal Foreign Affairs is adding its voice to the warnings about a potential influenza pandemic by publishing a special section on pandemics in its forthcoming July/August issue. Titled "The Next Pandemic," the section includes four articles by a panel of experts. They focus on the evidence that the H5N1 flu virus may spark a pandemic, the challenges of preparing for a pandemic, the need to integrate disease-control efforts for people and animals, and the lessons of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
Foreign Affairs is the second well-known journal in less than three weeks to publish a sizable collection of articles on the threat of a pandemic.

Foreign Affairs is the second well-known journal in less than three weeks to publish a sizable collection of articles on the threat of a pandemic. The British journal Nature published 10 articles on the subject in its May 26 issue.

Foreign Affairs has also scheduled a special press briefing on the pandemic issue for Jun 16 in Washington, DC. The briefing will feature two of the article authors, Laurie Garrett and Michael T. Osterholm, along with Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and James F. Hoge Jr., editor of the journal.

Following are summaries of the Foreign Affairs articles.


'The next pandemic?'

The H5N1 flu virus is showing potential to cause the next flu pandemic. It is impossible to predict when a pandemic might hit—the swine flu of 1976, which failed to materialize, is a notable example of the risks of such predictions—but author Laurie Garrett is certain that the world is currently unready to address such a threat. Garrett is a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The imbalance of wealth, the weakness of public health systems in countries worldwide, and the numerous hurdles to fast, efficient vaccine production are just a few of the issues that will affect how the world copes with a pandemic, Garrett says. She recommends that national policymakers prepare now "for worst-case scenarios involving quarantines, weakened armed services, dwindling hospital space and vaccine supplie." Further, it is in every government's interest to bolster the funding and authority of the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization so they can offer timely, impartial assessments of an epidemic's progress.

People engaged in policy and security worldwide "cannot afford to ignore the warning" of a possible pandemic, Garrett writes.


'Preparing for the Next Pandemic'

The next flu pandemic could well cause hundreds of millions of deaths around the world and bring the global economy to a standstill, writes Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of this Web site.

Recent evidence suggests that the H5N1 strain of influenza A could trigger a pandemic like that of 1918-19, which probably killed between 50 million and 100 million people, Osterholm writes. In today's world, that could mean up to 360 million deaths. The SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic gave a hint of the kind of economic disruption a pandemic could cause. Though only about 8,000 of SARS cases occurred, the disease cost the Asia-Pacific region an estimated $40 billion.

If a major pandemic began today, the global economy would shut down, Osterholm predicts. The disease would trigger shortages of food and other essential commodities. No vaccine would be available in the first several months, and in the first year the world could produce only enough vaccine for about 14% of the population. The antiviral drug oseltamivir could help countries that have stockpiled it, but in most of the world it would be unavailable. Other medical supplies such as masks and ventilators would be in short supply.

As he has done in other recent writings, Osterholm calls for detailed operational planning to get through a pandemic. He also advocates an international project to develop the ability to produce a vaccine for the entire world population within several months of the start of a pandemic. If there isn't enough vaccine to go around, economic disaster will overtake all countries, regardless of their vaccine supplies. "No one can truly be isolated from a pandemic," he writes.


'One World, One Health'

Many diseases that have scared the public and disrupted global commerce in recent years have been zoonoses — diseases that originated in animals and crossed into humans. The emergence of diseases like avian flu, SARS, and Ebola tell us that it's time to knock down the walls between the agencies and groups that deal with diseases in humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, according to William B. Karesh and Robert A. Cook. Karesh directs the field veterinary program at the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and co-chairs the World Conservation Union's veterinary specialist group; Cook is vice-president of the WCS and its chief veterinarian.

Burgeoning international travel, population growth, the global trade in animals and animal products, and a growing dependence on intensified livestock production have made humanity more vulnerable to cross-species diseases, Karesh and Cook write. But "no government agency or multilateral organization today focuses on the numerous diseases that threaten people, domestic animals, and wildlife alike."

The authors observe that the eradication of smallpox — the only major infectious disease that has been eradicated — was possible largely because smallpox, at least under natural conditions, affects only humans. When a pathogen can infect a range of hosts, controlling it becomes far more difficult and requires an integrated approach, they write.

They call for a number of steps to integrate efforts to deal with human and animal diseases. Examples include better surveillance of wildlife diseases, requiring animal traders to pay more of the cost of preventing and controlling outbreaks, and inducing governments to improve the regulation of trade in animals.

"Bridges must be built between different scientific disciplines, and trade in wildlife must be dramatically reduced and, like the livestock industry, properly regulated," Karesh and Cook argue.


'The lessons of HIV/AIDS'

To understand the impact of a potential avian flu pandemic, author Laurie Garrett suggests, one should first examine a slower-moving global pandemic: HIV/AIDS. Garrett details the massive destabilization of countries across the world as soldiers, teachers, and political leaders die and countless children are orphaned.

Donor states should spend heavily on HIV/AIDS prevention, care, and treatment, but also emphasize development to usher the poorest countries into the global economy, Garrett contends. Donor states also should step up international programs that prevent high-risk sex and drug use while providing condoms and sterile needles, she adds. The survival of some developing countries may rest on risking tension over unequal treatment to provide antiretroviral therapy to important people and workers in key sectors of society.

In addition, science and global security interests must recognize the importance of developing more sophisticated methods to identify and track specific strains of HIV and factors, such as drug smuggling, that contribute to the spread of the disease.

*******************

For more information, see the links to the three articles in Foreign Affairs.
probegallo
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=18485

Interview was with Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for the council of foreign relations, plague expert. She authored article on H5N1 in "Foreign Affairs", saying "This is 'doom may loom'".

She said that the scientific community believes pandemic influenza has switched from a possibility to a probability.

She doesn't feel we are prepared to deal with pandemic.
"If it comes this fall, there's not a heck of a lot we can do", she said.

She refers to foreign policy concerns brought about by a maximum of 300M doses of vaccine worldwide, leaving many countries without, IF a vaccine could be made.

She raised the problem that flu vaccine is grown on chicken eggs, and this virus is 100 percent lethal to chickens, so growing the virus on chicken eggs is really tough.

She said that this virus continues to mutate, and to do so in alarming ways.

She was asked if this were an alarmist position, and said no. Said in 1918, before travel this easy, the flu circumnavigated the globe three times in 18 months.

Nothing said that those of us here don't know - a hell of a lot said that the majority of people either don't know or don't want to accept. Interview too short, too shallow, but the important thing of note is that it happened at all.
Seniorita
Shade
Цитата
ну хоть вкратце последний пост можно расшифрить?


Ну резюме будет:
Цитата
"If it comes this fall, there's not a heck of a lot we can do",

(тут мой вольный перевод) "когда эта напасть обрушиться на нас - обратить ее нам не в силах"

А в двух словах.. их исследовательское сообщество убеждено, что проблема медленно (для вселенских мерок) но верно из возможной превращается в весьма ивесьма правдоподобную. Ну и еще один малоприятный акцент, что сейчас вакцина производится на основе куриных яиц, а поскольку вирус смертоносен для самих кур, то сам процесс усложняется, сами понимаете..
(Яйца нести некому)
Примерно так. ну и оканчивает свою речь на "оптимистичной" ноте, мол ОНО уже пришло... И мутирует, мутирует...

P.S.
исправление и дополнения принимаются
probegallo
Flu coming to Guymon: Training exercise planned this fall

"One-fifth of the population is expected to die."

That was the grim warning Monday from Tammie Miller, a Registered Nurse from the Oklahoma State Department of Health.

She was speaking to the Guymon Chamber of Commerce members regarding the potential for avian flu to be transmitted to human hosts.

"It's not a matter of if it going to happen, it's when it is going to happen," she said.

Miller pointed out that the flu, once believed to be contained only by the bird family, has now been found in swine and there is one case under investigation involving a human host.

"This isn't going to be an illness that will come and go. It will go on for weeks and even months. You will see schools and businesses closed." Much of the problem stems from the current inability to produce a vaccine against avian flu. "Antivirals will help but there are not enough and they are costly," she pointed out.

Because of such an epidemic possibility, the state is planning an exercise designed to train local government officials and the general public in dealing with an outbreak.

In Guymon, the exercise is scheduled this fall and is expected to involve several thousand people.

Guymon is one of 35 cities in the state that will be going through such an exercise which is funded through the federal government through the anti-terrorism legislation.

Miller said the program is a two-day event that will start with the Oklahoma Highway Patrol being notified that an outbreak has occurred and vaccine is needed. "The OHP will be in charge of delivering the medication and will provide security," she said.

On day two of the exercise, the vaccinations will be given with local officials in charge of everything from traffic control to ensuring sufficient supplies of water and even electricity.

She pointed out the exercise will include real immunizations that will be given to local residents. That vaccine is the type given annually to counter the flu virus.

"We expect 2,500 to 3,000 people to be vaccinated during this exercise," she said. "Because of the number, we are going to need some volunteer help, including nurses, translators and emergency medical service personnel.

"This is a lot of work but it is also a lot of fun," Miller told the chamber members.

More information about the exercise will be provided when the actual date is set.


http://www.gdherald.com/articles/2005/07/1.../news/news5.txt
probegallo
Афигеть!

http://discuss.agonist.org/yabbse/index.ph...;threadid=22148

Re:2 Indonesians die from suspected bird flu
« Reply #4 on: Today at 06:43:18am » Reply with quote

Seems the board is down at the moment. That is why I will past it here. Boxun reports now that China confirms Boxun report on the fact that the H5N1 is different from the 'previous H5N1'. Basically they refer to the Nature and Science papers, now they are out, they might as well state that the Quinhai situation is serious.


http://world.altavista.com/babelfish/trurl...507131330.shtml

China confirmed Boxun's report on bird flu

(July 13, 2,005) Today (July 13), China officially claimed that bird flu in Qinghai is not H5N1, but a new type. "It is much more dangerous than H5N1", according to this official report released today.
In an unconfirmed news on May 25 2005, released by Boxun, it stated that the bird flu in Qinghai is a new form of virus rather than H5N1, "its symptom is slightly different from H5N1, but it can resist high temprature, faster to show symptoms and more likely to transfer".

In a series of reports (released but not unconfirmed by Boxun), it claimed to have people dead of this virus, but this claim has been denied by the government. (boxun.com)

AND:
http://world.altavista.com/babelfish/trurl...507131320.shtml

Chinese Communist Party confirmed the abundant news sends the Qinghai birds and beasts flu epidemic situation the authenticity
(Abundant news on July 13, 2005)
According to the abundant news on May 25, 2005 reported that, "stated according to the insider, at present may understand is this birds and beasts flu certainly is not pure H5N1, but is H5N1 ties the synthesis with other infectious virus the new infection virus, but in the symptom only has the small difference with H5N1, has the ambush in particular under the high temperature, manifests suddenly the time to be quicker, but has the infection."
Yesterday Sina published the news "the Lake Qinghai birds and beasts flu really ominously to find out the new H5N1 virus to kill the migratory bird". The news called "one kind killed" the migratory bird after the reorganization new H5N1 virus "." "In this Lake Qinghai epidemic situation, the scientist from the dead bird's pharynx and larynx, 泄殖腔 in the secretion separated the virus, and carried on the entire gene group to 4 virus isolations sample to examine. The result discovered, they and known H5N1 virus type all quite same not less than. In other words, virus's gene group possibly passed through the rearrangement." "This kind of new H5N1 virus harm is enormous, its toxicity has gone far beyond previously the similar aquatic bird birds and beasts flu virus which discovered north part of China."

The Chinese Communist Party news already confirmed the abundant news disclosed Qinghai birds and beasts flu epidemic situation authenticity. (Abundant news boxun.com)
probegallo
Human to Human Transmission of H5N1 Bird Flu in Asia

Recombinomics Commentary
July 15, 2005

The victims, a 38-year-old man and his two girls, ages nine and one, would be the country's first human fatalities linked to the virus. They lived in a suburb of Jakarta and all died in the last week and a half, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said.

But Dr. Georg Petersen, a WHO representative, said that while the three Indonesian family members had no known contact with poultry, a more thorough investigation could turn up evidence to the contrary.

"In other countries, this is often the case," he said.

The comments above by yet another WHO representative misrepresenting the data on human-to-human transmission of H5N1 bird flu in Asia is unfortunate, but not unexpected. Today's Science has a figure showing that WHO places the flu pandemic at stage 3, which was also stated last week in a Nature news story on the Qinghai sequences. Clearly WHO is misrepresenting the stage of the current flu pandemic.

Stage four of the pandemic is represented by small dead end human-to human transmission. There have been over a dozen of such clusters beginning in early 2004 in Vietnam. These clusters are characterized by a bimodal distribution, which is present in virtually every familial cluster in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. This is true in the current cluster in Indonesia. Both the husband and one-year-old sister developed symptoms after the index case was hospitalized last month. The two secondary transmissions were hospitalized on July 7. This 5-10 day gap between the index case and subsequent infections in family members is the hall mark of familial human-to-human transmission of H5N1 and has been laboratory confirmed in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.

WHO disregards the fact that virtually all familial clusters have been bimodal and instead tries to find alternative explanations, which make little sense epidemiologically, but are fed to the media and even the top peer reviewed scientific journals, which then faithfully publish the data, misrepresenting the true stage of the 2005 flu pandemic.

One bimodal distribution within a family is highly suggestive of human-to-human transmission. Two such clusters move human-to-human transmission to near certainty, and over a dozen leave little doubt, yet WHO has told the media that the pandemic is at stage 3, when the familial clusters are clear examples of limited human-to-human transmission, which is the definition of stage 4.

The expansion of these clusters has happened in northern Vietnam, signaling stage 5 and if reports out of Qinghai are accurate, then the stage has already moved to phase 6, the final stage..

The listing of the pandemic stage at 3 in today's Science is beyond scandalous. It is a clear misrepresentation of the facts, and such misrepresentations by WHO encourage countries to issue misleading information, as happened once again in Indonesia.

The latest misrepresentations extend the commission by omission statements throughout Asia, including the lack of2005 OIE reports on H5N1 in China, which were demonstrated by sequence data from 2005 isolates in Fujian, Shantou, Hunan, and Yunnan provinces.

The human-to-human transmission in Indonesia now represents the fourth country with reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1. Vietnam and Thailand reported such clusters in 2004 Vietnam and Cambodia had clusters in 2005. Third party reports indicate China had much larger clusters in 2005

The real question of stages is if the true level is 5 or 6.

Добавлено в [mergetime]1121438303[/mergetime]
UPDATE: 2005.07.15

Canada asleep at the wheel

Canada, like many other countries, has failed to stockpile sufficient anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu in preparation for a (bird) flu pandemic. The government simply has not been paying attention until recently, and it is too late now: the sole manufacturer of Tamiflu has worldwide orders for at least 40 million doses, and nowhere near the capacity to make them anytime soon.

The federal authorities responsible have neglected to do the jobs they were hired for. Canada has Tamiflu in stock for maybe 7% of its population, the US less than 1%. European countries like Britain and France are reported to be close to 40%.

The Ottawa Citizen yesterday cited Ontario's chief medical officer of health, Dr. Sheela Basrur, and Dr. Carolyn Bennett, the federal minister responsible for public health.

So what is the "solution" the government in Ottawa sees to essentially cover up its own failure? They tell people it is bad to ask their doctors for Tamiflu, because that would not fit in with the government plans. The few doses that are available in the country should now go to the frail, the elderly and "the essential".

Dr. Basrur says that without an adequate supply of medication, federal and provincial government efforts to reduce anticipated deaths could be jeopardized. Yes, we understand that. So why is there no adequate supply of medication? How are the people to blame who ask their doctor for it?

If I were a journalist, my first question for these officials would be whether they see themselves as "essential". If the answer were affirmative, as I suspect it would be, that would be the last question I would ever have for them. But I would love to be proven wrong.

Dr. Bennett claims that people do not really understand that it will be the nursing homes and the frail elderly and the people with the compromised immune systems that will need this. I think people understand that quite well. But that is not the story. Dr. Michael Osterholm put it best when he said that as a health practitioner he prefers to let the government decide who should get the drugs during a pandemic, but as a husband, a father and a friend, he thinks stockpiling Tamiflu is something people should absolutely consider.

All in all, though I understand it is a hard situation, I resent the fact that officials try to put the blame for their mistakes on the very people they are supposed to represent and help.

Another item from the Ottawa Citizen article is numbers. Dr. Basrur puts worst-case scenario anticipated deaths at 58.000 in Canada. This is the kind of thing that makes me curious and suspicious, and glad I have a back of an envelope at hand.

The last large flu pandemic was the Spanish flu of 1918. Some 40 million people died worldwide from that (estimates range from 20 to 100 million). The world population in 1918 was about 1.8 billion people. In 2005, that number has risen to 6.5 billion, or roughly 3,5 times more. 40 million times 3,5 is 140 million deaths worldwide. This is a conservative number. Dr. Osterholm puts it at between 180 and 360 million. Remember, we are talking about a worst-case scenario.

Canada has about 0.5% of the world population. 0.5% of the death toll of 140 million is 700.000. But we can presume the pandemic will hit harder in Asia than it does here. To allow for that, divide the number by 2. That leaves 350.000 deaths in Canada. And this is without taking into account the hugely increased mobility in the world, which is sure to be a factor in spreading a virus.

So where does the 58.000 number come from? No idea. A government report in the UK puts worst-case numbers there at around 700.000. Someone is not making sense.

One last thing: the Spanish flu pandemic killed mainly healthy young adults, 20-40 years old, and not the frail elderly. Dr. Osterholm says that is because strong immune systems are likely to turn against their own bodies in the case of avian flu, in what he calls a cytokine storm. Answering the question of who should get the medication is not as clear-cut as you might think.
Posted by RoelMeijer
2005.07.15 // H5N1 tamiflu Canada government // #
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