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probegallo
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What are the Bird Flu tipping points?
Bird Flu Tipping Point(s)
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=26696
It is obvious that the Western culture of absolute risk avoidance implies that if bird flu goes h2h and a pandemic begins most commerce will be put on hold and the world economy will go into a major holding pattern. What percent bird flu deaths before collapse of the western and worlds economy? What percent bird flu deaths before society breaks down and deaths from social disorder exceed deaths from illness?
Heres my guess on tipping points for Bird Flu Total Mortality tipping points (once H2H occurs)
0 2% Total Mortality (any combination of infection rates X case fatality rates)
Americans go into economic shutdown for the first week, followed by gradual reentry into the work force. Economy begins to rebuild based upon need, i.e. food, energy, medical services, with non-essential products and services in a zero sales mode (who needs more clothes?) Economy severely slowed down, but no major disruptions.
2- 10% Total Mortality Okay, now your chances of dying are getting up there, so everyone stays home till they run out of food. An economist would calculate the chance of dying from starvation (100%) vs the chance of dying from bird flu (2-10%) and conclude that it would be better to take your chances and get out and get some food. I have no problem believing that there will be enough people willing to get into the food distribution system so that they will have money, food, and possibly first in line for drugs so that food distribution would start back up again within a few weeks. Economy goes into depression, tailspin, and worse. Many industries simply disappear. Martial Law would be set up for the next few years in all countries.
10-25% Total Mortality Beginning of breakdown of social order The starvation equation will still force people to attempt to continue the food distribution networks, however loss of key critical personnel begin to bollux up the attempts. Spot unavailability of any food in some population centers begin to cause riots and martial law isnt helping. Death rate from flu is exceeded in some locations by the death rate from murder and martial law crackdowns. Economy, what economy?
25% or greater Mortality (Death rate from the plague was 50%) This is the Final tipping point in my opinion. At this death rate, I believe that the total death rate from starvation and crime will exceed the bird flu death rate. Expect all energy services to fail (meaning no internet as well) because of disruptions in key personnel, transportation systems of fuel and spare parts. Food distribution fails as well for the same reasons. Starvation forces all local military commands to begin scavenging operations and anyone not associated with such groups are now considered the enemy. Hunkering down for the duration is not an option as every building and home will be searched for food, weapons, and personnel. If 10% of the worlds population survives after 12 months, I would be surprised.
Comments?
Bird Flu Tipping Point(s)
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=26696
It is obvious that the Western culture of absolute risk avoidance implies that if bird flu goes h2h and a pandemic begins most commerce will be put on hold and the world economy will go into a major holding pattern. What percent bird flu deaths before collapse of the western and worlds economy? What percent bird flu deaths before society breaks down and deaths from social disorder exceed deaths from illness?
Heres my guess on tipping points for Bird Flu Total Mortality tipping points (once H2H occurs)
0 2% Total Mortality (any combination of infection rates X case fatality rates)
Americans go into economic shutdown for the first week, followed by gradual reentry into the work force. Economy begins to rebuild based upon need, i.e. food, energy, medical services, with non-essential products and services in a zero sales mode (who needs more clothes?) Economy severely slowed down, but no major disruptions.
2- 10% Total Mortality Okay, now your chances of dying are getting up there, so everyone stays home till they run out of food. An economist would calculate the chance of dying from starvation (100%) vs the chance of dying from bird flu (2-10%) and conclude that it would be better to take your chances and get out and get some food. I have no problem believing that there will be enough people willing to get into the food distribution system so that they will have money, food, and possibly first in line for drugs so that food distribution would start back up again within a few weeks. Economy goes into depression, tailspin, and worse. Many industries simply disappear. Martial Law would be set up for the next few years in all countries.
10-25% Total Mortality Beginning of breakdown of social order The starvation equation will still force people to attempt to continue the food distribution networks, however loss of key critical personnel begin to bollux up the attempts. Spot unavailability of any food in some population centers begin to cause riots and martial law isnt helping. Death rate from flu is exceeded in some locations by the death rate from murder and martial law crackdowns. Economy, what economy?
25% or greater Mortality (Death rate from the plague was 50%) This is the Final tipping point in my opinion. At this death rate, I believe that the total death rate from starvation and crime will exceed the bird flu death rate. Expect all energy services to fail (meaning no internet as well) because of disruptions in key personnel, transportation systems of fuel and spare parts. Food distribution fails as well for the same reasons. Starvation forces all local military commands to begin scavenging operations and anyone not associated with such groups are now considered the enemy. Hunkering down for the duration is not an option as every building and home will be searched for food, weapons, and personnel. If 10% of the worlds population survives after 12 months, I would be surprised.
Comments?
